Gross domestic product (GDP): India
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Historical GDP
LONGSTANDING GIANTS The Times of India Dec 05 2014
Which will be the world's largest economies in the future? Various studies suggest that it would be either China or India. But what about the largest economies in the past--1CE (Common Era), 1000CE, 1500CE and so on? Interestingly, even these periods were dominated by the Asian giants.For more than 1,700 years, India and China were the world's largest economies. Their dominance ended after the industrial revolution and the subsequent imperialist expansion of European nations which drained the world's wealth to the West. That's what data on historical GDP calculated by the late Angus Maddison, British economist and scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, shows
GDP rank
7th in Oct 2016, 5th in Dec 2016
2016: India has managed to overtake UK's GDP first time in nearly 150 years.
The shift has been driven by India's rapid economic growth over the past 25 years, the Forbes report said.
The report also gave credit to fall in the value of the pound for India's significant rise in GDP.
With a growth forecast of 7.6 per cent by IMF, India would add $174 billion to its GDP next year, taking its economy size to $2.46 trillion.
On October 8, 2016, International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted India to surpass Europeans by the end of the fiscal.
"India is the seventh largest economy worth $2.29 trillion - just $50 billion less than the current UK's GDP, which will be bridged by end of this fiscal," IMF had said.
NEW DELHI: Owing to Britain's recent Brexit-related problems and thanks to India's rapid economic growth, India has managed to overtake its erstwhile colonial master United Kingdom in terms of the size of the economy - the first time after nearly 150 years.
This dramatic shift has been driven by India's rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well downslide in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, a report published in Forbes magazine said.
"Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20 per cent decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK's 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India's GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of INR 66.6 per $1," the report said.
Interestingly, economic think-tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had, in December 2011, forecasted that India would become the "fifth largest by 2020" but India has crossed this significant milestone much sooner.
"Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8 per cent p.a. compared to UK's growth of 1 to 2 per cent p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India's economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects," the report said.
India overtook UK & became 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany."
GDP, year-wise
2016-17
7% growth in Oct-Dec currency controls
See also:
Demonetisation of high value currency- 1946, 1978, 2016: India
GDP grows at 7% in Oct-Dec despite note ban squeeze, March 1, 2017: The Times of India
The Indian economy is expected to expand at 7.1% this financial year after factoring in the impact of demonetisation, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said. Although this is slower than the 7.9% growth registered in 201516, it gives the Narendra Modi government the firepower to defend its decision to scrap old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, which, according to critics, has been disastrous for the economy.
During October-December, CSO's advance estimates showed GDP grew 7%, compared to 7.4% in previous quarter. Opposition parties had said that demonetisation led to massive job losses as companies cut down on production and overall economic activity was disrupted post November 8, even as the government maintained the impact was temporary .While the RBI and the International Monetary Fund have cut growth estimates for the financial year by up to one percentage point, some agencies had predicted sub-6% rise in the December quarter. Those such as Ambit Capital went to the ex tent of projecting less than 4% growth during the year.
Most companies reported a drop in demand during the December-quarter, but official estimates suggest that there was no impact as private final con sumption expenditure as a proportion of GDP remained flat.
The data did result in some elation in the government.“The third quarter GDP numbers are out and, as you have seen, the numbers completely negate the kind of negative projections and speculations made about the impact of demonetisation,“ economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters. Economists, however, pointed out that a revision in the rates for October-December 2015 may have helped improve the performance. “The steep downward revision of Q3 FY16 (October-December 2015) has in turn led to higher growth in Q3 FY17 October-December 2016), thus masking the impact of demonetisation in Q3 figures,“ SBI group chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh said in a note.“Overall, the GDP numbers seem to suggest we may have just leapfrogged the impact of demonetisation,“ he added.
Core growth slow to 3.4% in Jan
New Delhi: The growth of eight core sectors slowed down to a five-month low of 3.4% in January, mainly due to contraction in output of refinery products, fertiliser and cement.The growth rate of eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity was 5.7% in January 2016. AGENCIES
Impact of poor monsoons on GDP growth
`Poor rains unlikely to impact GDP growth much'
Prabhakar Sinha New Delhi:
TNN [The Times of India Jun 19 2014
Even as country braces for likely deficient monsoon, its impact on GDP may not be very significant.
The decline in farm output as a result of shortfall in rains is unlikely to reduce GDP growth rate in 2014 by more than 0.5 percentage points, says global research firm Morgan Stanley in its latest report
The production of pulses and oil seeds, the report points out, may be worst affected, leading to rise in prices of these items and to bridge the demand-supply gap, the country will have to depend on imports.
Trends in monsoon rainfall will be critical for the overall inflation outlook. While food inflation has softened over the last few months, a poor monsoon may reverse the trend. Monsoon rains have an important bearing on inflation with primary and manufactured articles contributing 24.3% weight in overall wholesale price index and 47.6% in the new Consumer price Index. While the countrywide shortfall in rains is expected to be around 7%, the spatial (region-wise) distribution forecast shows that monsoon deficiency in North-West India may be 8% with a 71% probability . But being the most irrigated region in the country , it currently boasts of full reservoirs. So, according to the report, the region that comprises of Punjab, Haryana and Western UP and produces most of the Kharif crops should see a near-normal production.
If El Nino fears were to come true, the report says, there will be downside risks to Morgan Stanley's estimate of agricultural growth at 2.4% in 2014-15. With agriculture accounting for only 15% of GDP, one percentage point reduction in agricultural growth rate will lead to 15 basis points (100 basis points make one percentage point) decline in GDP growth.
Therefore, even if there is no growth in the agricultural sector, the direct impact on GDP growth will not be of more than 0.5 percentage point, predicts report.
