Gross domestic product (GDP): India
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Historical GDP
LONGSTANDING GIANTS The Times of India Dec 05 2014
Which will be the world's largest economies in the future? Various studies suggest that it would be either China or India. But what about the largest economies in the past--1CE (Common Era), 1000CE, 1500CE and so on? Interestingly, even these periods were dominated by the Asian giants.For more than 1,700 years, India and China were the world's largest economies. Their dominance ended after the industrial revolution and the subsequent imperialist expansion of European nations which drained the world's wealth to the West. That's what data on historical GDP calculated by the late Angus Maddison, British economist and scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, shows
GDP rank
7th in Oct 2016, 5th in Dec 2016
2016: India has managed to overtake UK's GDP first time in nearly 150 years.
The shift has been driven by India's rapid economic growth over the past 25 years, the Forbes report said.
The report also gave credit to fall in the value of the pound for India's significant rise in GDP.
With a growth forecast of 7.6 per cent by IMF, India would add $174 billion to its GDP next year, taking its economy size to $2.46 trillion.
On October 8, 2016, International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted India to surpass Europeans by the end of the fiscal.
"India is the seventh largest economy worth $2.29 trillion - just $50 billion less than the current UK's GDP, which will be bridged by end of this fiscal," IMF had said.
NEW DELHI: Owing to Britain's recent Brexit-related problems and thanks to India's rapid economic growth, India has managed to overtake its erstwhile colonial master United Kingdom in terms of the size of the economy - the first time after nearly 150 years.
This dramatic shift has been driven by India's rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well downslide in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, a report published in Forbes magazine said.
"Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20 per cent decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK's 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India's GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of INR 66.6 per $1," the report said.
Interestingly, economic think-tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had, in December 2011, forecasted that India would become the "fifth largest by 2020" but India has crossed this significant milestone much sooner.
"Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8 per cent p.a. compared to UK's growth of 1 to 2 per cent p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India's economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects," the report said.
India overtook UK & became 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany."
Impact of poor monsoons on GDP growth
`Poor rains unlikely to impact GDP growth much'
Prabhakar Sinha New Delhi:
TNN [The Times of India Jun 19 2014
Even as country braces for likely deficient monsoon, its impact on GDP may not be very significant.
The decline in farm output as a result of shortfall in rains is unlikely to reduce GDP growth rate in 2014 by more than 0.5 percentage points, says global research firm Morgan Stanley in its latest report
The production of pulses and oil seeds, the report points out, may be worst affected, leading to rise in prices of these items and to bridge the demand-supply gap, the country will have to depend on imports.
Trends in monsoon rainfall will be critical for the overall inflation outlook. While food inflation has softened over the last few months, a poor monsoon may reverse the trend. Monsoon rains have an important bearing on inflation with primary and manufactured articles contributing 24.3% weight in overall wholesale price index and 47.6% in the new Consumer price Index. While the countrywide shortfall in rains is expected to be around 7%, the spatial (region-wise) distribution forecast shows that monsoon deficiency in North-West India may be 8% with a 71% probability . But being the most irrigated region in the country , it currently boasts of full reservoirs. So, according to the report, the region that comprises of Punjab, Haryana and Western UP and produces most of the Kharif crops should see a near-normal production.
If El Nino fears were to come true, the report says, there will be downside risks to Morgan Stanley's estimate of agricultural growth at 2.4% in 2014-15. With agriculture accounting for only 15% of GDP, one percentage point reduction in agricultural growth rate will lead to 15 basis points (100 basis points make one percentage point) decline in GDP growth.
Therefore, even if there is no growth in the agricultural sector, the direct impact on GDP growth will not be of more than 0.5 percentage point, predicts report.
