Uttar Pradesh: political history
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SUBJECT-WISE
Bureaucrats turning to politics
1990s, 2014-2022
From: March 11, 2022: The Times of India
See graphic:
Castes and politics in UP: 1990s, 2014-2022
2014-22
Pankaj Shah, January 17, 2022: The Times of India
LUCKNOW: When ex-IPS officer Asim Arun and former IAS officer Ram Bahadur formally joined the BJP on Sunday, the development marked a conspicuous trend of bureaucrats turning to politics after completing their services or taking a VRS midway.
In fact, Arun and Ram Bahadur add to the list of high-ranking officials to have joined the BJP which stormed to power in the politically crucial state with an overwhelming majority in 2017. Earlier, ex-IAS Arvind Kumar Sharma and former UP DGP Brij Lal had joined the BJP.
A Jatav, the Dalit sub-caste to which BSP chief Mayawati belongs, Arun had announced of taking a VRS on the day when notification for UP polls was announced on January 8. Since then, speculations have been rife that Arun might be fielded by BJP from an assembly seat from his native district of Kannauj.
During his service period, Aseem is learnt to have won the confidence of CM Yogi Adityanath who picked him to be appointed as Kanpur's first police commissioner. His father, Sri Ram Arun was the UP DGP during the tenure of former CM late Kalyan Singh in 1997. Sri Ram, who passed away in August 2018, is said to have conceived the idea of the UP Special Task Force (STF).
Ram Bahadur, a former civil servant, has been close to BSP chief Mayawati. As vice-chairman of Lucknow Development Authority, he had taken some very tough decisions including a crackdown on illegal encroachments. He is said to have been a member of All India Backward (SC, ST, OBC) And Minority Communities Employees Federation (BAMCEF), the ideological fountainhead of BSP founded by Kanshiram. Ram Bahadur, in fact, contested as BSP candidate from Mohanlalganj in 2017 but lost.
Like Arun, former IPS Brij Lal, too, had joined the BJP soon after it came to power in UP in 2017. In fact, Arun is learnt to have joined politics at the instance of Brij Lal, who is now a BJP Rajya Sabha member. A Pasi Dalit himself, Brij Lal was also UP DGP in 2010-12 during the tenure of BSP chief Mayawati. He held a reputation of a tough cop and an "encounter specialist". Sources said CM Yogi was in consistent touch with Brij Lal even as he launched a massive crackdown against criminals and mafia.
Yogi's action drew opposition's criticism who criticized him for his "Thoko" (knock down) policy. Even as BJP projected an improved law and order situation, Brij Lal got appointed as chairman of state SC/ST commission -- a post equivalent to minister of state. And in 2020 he got a ticket to Rajya Sabha.
So is the case with AK Sharma, a Gujarat cadre IAS officer of 1988 batch, who took VRS to join the BJP only last year. Considered close to PM Narendra Modi, Sharma had worked with him during his stint as Gujarat CM and then at the PMO. A resident of Mau in east UP, Sharma got a BJP ticket to UP legislative council. He was later appointed UP BJP vice-president. Sharma, who chooses to stay away from media glare, has been active in the east UP region including PM Modi's constituency of Varanasi.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP fielded the then Mumbai police commissioner Satya Pal Singh from Baghpat. Singh defeated the then sitting MP and RLD chief Ajit Singh by well over 2 lakh votes. He was subsequently appointed as junior minister in the Union ministry for Human resources. Satya Pal again won Baghpat seat in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this time defeating Ajit Singh's son Jayant Chaudhary.
Experts point out that bureaucrats getting para-dropped in the poll cauldron of UP is not new. The 1970 batch IAS officer, Panna Lal Punia, a Dalit, made Congress his political home after retiring from the services in 2005. A close confidant of BSP boss Mayawati -- he has been Mayawati's principal secretary in 1995, 1997 and 2002 -- contested from Fatehgarh but lost to BSP's Meeta Gautam. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress gave him a ticket to contest from Barabanki which he won. Punia, however, lost the seat to BJP's Prayanka Rawat in 2014. He was then routed to Rajya Sabha.
Retired IAS officer Kunwar Fateh Bahadur was also considered close to Mayawati too had joined the BSP.
Cases relating to communal riots
2017-20: 80 cases withdrawn
January 12, 2020: The Times of India
MUZAFFARNAGAR: The Uttar Pradesh government has decided to appeal in court for withdrawing four more cases related to Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013, taking the total number of such cases that it intends to withdraw to 80, an official said.
The final decision on the state government's requests to withdraw the pending cases of 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots will be taken by the court, said the district's government counsel Dushyant Tyagi.
According to the UP special law secretary Arun Rai, the state government on Saturday directed the Muzaffarnagar district authorities to file an appeal in the court for withdrawing four more cases related to the riots.
Earlier, the state government had decided to withdraw 76 such cases.
The state government is yet to decide on withdrawing the cases against BJP MLA Sangeet Som, Union minister Sanjeev Kumar Balyan, state cabinet minister Suresh Rana and other leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar and adjoining areas in August and September 2013 had claimed 60 lives and displaced over 40,000 people.
Caste coalitions; voting pattern
Kalyan Singh’s formula: 1980s
Kalyan Singh as UP chief minister perfected a plan in the late 1980s to great success.
Singh, a Lodh strongman, was acutely aware that BJP could never hope to win in UP without expanding its core vote of upper castes and the trading community . With Muslims arrayed like a wall against the party and Yadavs and Jatavs ranged solidly behind Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati, he decided to aggressively woo non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits.The move met with spectacular success with BJP forming its first government in 1991. Singh's strategy was of fusing Hindutva with backward empowerment.
The lynchpin of the BJP in UP in the heady 1990s when he could do no wrong, Singh fell foul of palace intrigue and even had to leave the party for a while.
Singh's formula of attracting non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav SC castes to BJP was junked once he lost heft in the party , that is till Amit Shah emerged on the scene. Convinced of the tactic's efficacy , the party chief returned to it during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with breathtaking results. BJP's renewed back ward focus is writ large as it aggressively woos a section that gravitated to it during the 2014 polls when Narendra Modi reached out with a development plus Hindutva theme, strongly underpinned by his OBC roots.
In 207 in a situation where it does not have a leader --OBC or otherwise -who can transfer votes, BJP has made its move and ticket seekers who flocked to meet Singh when he was in Lucknow in Jan 2017 point to the veteran leader's hand in helping the party identify winning nominees.Non-Yadav OBC castes bagged 56 seats of the 149 declared in mid Jan 2017 for western UP and NCR constituencies .
The pitch for a segment that, unlike the Yadavs, is not wedded to the Samajwadi Party on purely caste lines is intended to tap into political empowerment of other backward castes. BJP has promoted several leaders from such OBC castes including state chief Keshav Maurya.
Caste equations, party-wise
UP caste cauldron: How it stacks up for the major parties, Jan 24, 2017: The Times of India
Ashish Tripathi, Jan 24 2017, The Times of India
There are 79 castes under other backward classes (OBCs). There are sub-categories of backward classes (BCs) and most backward classes (MBCs) within OBCs. Yadav, Lodh, Kurmi and Jat come under BCs and consti tute around 18% of the population, while all MBCs make up around 16.7%. Together, they have dominance in 145 assembly seats across UP . Yadavs are dominant OBCs and hold sway in 75 assembly constituencies with a population of over 20%. These include Etawah and the adjoining areas in west UP and Azamgarh and areas border ing Bihar in east UP . Dalits have 66 sub-castes and to gether they make up more than 20% of the population in near ly 100 assembly constituen cies. Muslims are over 20% in 145 assembly seats.
Brahmins play a crucial role in 60 assembly seats (over 20% of the population) in central and east UP and Thakurs are important in 85 seats (over 15% of population) mainly in central and east UP , such as Pratapgarh, Amethi, Domariaganj and Sultanpur, and some in west UP like Fatehpur Sikri. To win an election, a party needs at least 30% of the total votes, which cannot be achieved through one caste alone. Parties thus cobble up caste and communal alliances to sail through.
“The role of MBCs and subcastes comes into play here. Though the numbers differ from west to east UP , the demographic distribution and concentration of castes is such that a minor tilt of one caste or sub-caste can influence the election in a seat or even a region,“ says analyst Ashish Awasthi.
For example, among OBCs, Jats constitute only 2%, but they are over 17% of the populace in 11 districts of west UP , influencing 55 as sembly seats. Similarly , Kurmis are 4% and Lodhs 2% of the population but have influence in many seats in Bundelkhand, central and east UP .
Among MBCs -Mauryas, Shakyas, Sainis, Kushwaha, Nishads and Binds -have influence in central and east UP , Rajbhars in east UP . Together, they can play a crucial role in about 100 seats. Parties with bases among BCsMBCs and sub-castes have also come up.RLD has influence over Jats, Apna Dal over Kurmis, Mahan Dal over Mauryas, Shakyas, Sainis and Kushwaha, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party over Rajbhars and Peace Party over a section of east UP Muslims. A swing of 4,000-5,000 votes can win you an election in a particular constituency. This explains why major parties ally with smaller ones,“ says an analyst. Akhilesh Yadav's move to recommend the inclusion of 17 sub-castes from OBCs into the scheduled caste category is aimed at getting their votes. These castes are Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gaur, Tura, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar and Machua -spread across UP .
Similarly, among Dalit subcastes, BSP holds sway among Jatavs, which is why other parties are wooing sub-castes like Pasis and Balmikis, which are a good number in central UP. Here's how the main political players in UP have worked out their vote bank strategy:
1. Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)
Considered to be a party of Banias, the BJP surged in UP after the Ram Temple movement in 1989, by capturing the upper caste vote bank.
The party has since also made inroads with non-Yadav OBC castes and non-Jatav Dalits.
2.
Samajwadi Party (SP)
The Muslim-Yadav combination helped SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav emerge as a regional heavyweight.
He also got a section of Most Backward Class votes behind him, by projecting himself as the strongest OBC leader in the state.
Mulayam's son Akhilesh Yadav's face has since helped the party catch some floating upper caste votes.
3. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
Unflinching support from Dalits helped BSP grow steadily in the 1990s.
In 2007, BSP supremo Mayawati surprised all by successfully wooing a substantial chunk of Brahmin and Muslim voters through her 'social engineering'.
4. Congress
The Congress, once extremely powerful in UP, lost its support base - Brahmin, Muslim and Dalits - in the state in 1989.
The BSP took away the Dalits, the BJP grabbed the upper castes and the SP won the confidence of the Muslims. The party has been struggling, mightily, since then.
5. The Gameplan
• Most parties attempt to poach each other's vote bank in addition to bagging the vulnerable groups - the most backward among backward castes/classes and subcastes - while holding onto their core support base.
• The BJP hopes for Hindu consolidation but it doesn't have a face - Narendra Modi - like it did in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
• The SP and the BSP hope their core support bases will vote to see a chief minister of their respective castes, and are trying to woo other castes through ticket distribution.
• The Congress could make a comeback, especially in the first two phases of the polls with the 11 reserved seats the SP has given it.
The SC vote in 2012 and 2014
Pankaj Shah, SP-Cong pact may cut into Maya Dalit base, Jan 24, 2017: The Times of India
BSP chief Mayawati's worries in the wake of an SP-Congress alliance may not be restricted to the division of the Muslim vote bank.
The alliance, political analysts said, might also breach the Dalit citadel of Mayawati, at least in those reserved constituencies where BSP had performed relatively well in the past.
A beginning could be made in the first two phases of the polls where the SP has given 11 reserved seats to the Congress. In the 2012 elections, out of the 11, BSP had won five, the Congress won only two seats, its then ally RLD won three, while SP could win only one seat.
Though RLD has been edged out of the alliance, the Congress's fortunes may rise if SP manages to transfer its votes to it since the “grand old party“ has maintained its vote share in Dalit-dominated constituencies over the years. For instance, in Rampur Maniharan, where BSP candidate Ravindra Molhu defeated Congress candidate Vinod Tejiyan in 2012, SP candidate Vishwadayal Chotan came third.
While Molhu got 39.53% votes, Tejiyan and Chotan got 25.92% and 24.50%, respectively. Therefore, if SP votes get transferred to the Congress, its candidate can easily spoil the chances of BSP . Interestingly , Chotan is now a Congress candidate.
“Historically , the Con gress has been the `par ent party' for which Dalits voted. That, however, changed with the emergence of Kanshi Ram and BSP ,“ said S R Dara puri, a political ex pert. He said that if the Congress man ages to perform well in these seats with the help of SP, it would be able to cut into the vote bank of Mayawati.
Mayawati will address more than 50 rallies over the next month. On February 1, Mayawati will kick off her campaign by addressing a rally each in Meerut and Aligarh, the two west UP districts which go to the polls in the first phase, on February 11. She will end her campaign in Varanasi, PM Narendra Modi's LS constituency , on March 4.She, however, won't address any rally in Gautam Buddh Nagar, where her native village of Badalpur is situated.
2019/ The most backward sub-castes
Subhash Mishra, May 1, 2019: The Times of India
From: Subhash Mishra, May 1, 2019: The Times of India
Why parties are wooing UP’s most backward sub-castes
LUCKNOW: For the first time, all major political parties in Uttar Pradesh seem to have woken up to the growing importance of the 76 sub-castes among the most backward castes (MBC). In many constituencies, the sub-castes play a key role in determining an election result. Backward castes constitute 51% of UP’s population.
The emergence of regional parties representing particular castes, and quota have empowered dominant castes among MBCs. However, lower castes are still deprived. The benefits of reservation in government jobs and educational institutions have not reached them.
The Social Justice Committee, set up by then chief minister Rajnath Singh in 2001, underlined that of the total 79 Most Backward castes, 75% of Class I jobs had gone to only the Yadavs and the Kurmis since Independence. This has helped the Yadavs and the Kurmis to get government jobs as well as a space in the political system.
Then, in 2016, CM Yogi Adityanath set up another panel to implement quota within quota for MBCs. In 2018, it found that barring the dominant castes, the majority were deprived of reservation benefits. The recommendations of the two committees were dumped, apparently under pressure from the dominant backward castes.
Now, some of those left out want their share in the pie, and this has forced all major parties to walk the extra mile.
For example, BJP has fielded four Nishads and an equal number of Maurya-Kushwahas. In UP, there are four cabinet and four junior ministers from MBCs. BJP had organised a series of backward caste conventions in Lucknow before election dates were announced.
Samajwadi Party has fielded three Nishads, one Bind and one Kushwaha. Also, BJP and SP are sparring over Nishad votes. The Nishads are dominant in the Doab region and six districts of east UP.
The Nishad-Mullahs work as boatmen, fishermen and divers. For their votes, SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav had given a ticket to bandit queen Phoolan Devi from Mirzapur twice, in 1996 and 1998. In the 2018 Gorakhpur by-elections, SP’s Pravin Nishad defeated the BJP candidate. Pravin’s father Sanjay Nishad heads Nishad Party.
However, Yogi recently got Nishad Party to switch from SP and fielded Pravin from Sant Kabir Nagar. Akhilesh retaliated by poaching two Nishad leaders from BJP.
Similarly, Rajbhars have come up prominently in the political landscape in the last decade. Under the banner of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), they have influence in nearly 15 Lok Sabha seats in east UP. SBSP played a major role in the BJP’s landslide in 2017. However, unhappy with the seat pact with BJP, SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar quit NDA and fielded 39 candidates against BJP.
Other smaller castes have also consolidated. However, unlike the Lodhs having Kalyan Singh, the Yadavs Mulayam Singh and Kurmis Vinay Katiyar, the leadership crisis in most sub-castes is a cause of concern for the major parties. They feel they are dumped after elections as they don’t have strong leaders to bargain with major parties.
Chief Ministers
The tenures of Chief Ministers
See graphic:
Tenures of Chief Ministers of Uttar Pradesh
Conservative ideology
Halal certification banned/ 2023
Pathikrit Chakraborty, Nov 19, 2023: The Times of India
UP imposes ban on halal-certified food products
The UP government imposed a ban on the production, storage, distribution and sale of “halal-certified” food products within the state, with exceptions only for cases where such certification is required for export purposes, reports Pathikrit Chakraborty. The ban was implemented following concerns raised by CM Yogi Adityanath about the misuse of halal certification. This decision comes in the wake of an FIR filed Friday against eight agencies for allegedly issuing “forged” and “illegal” halal certificates.
Constituency-wise
Awadh
6 districts, 38 assembly seats determine state winner
See graphic:
Awadh constituency, Share of seats, SP, BSP, BJP, Congress and other, 1996-2012
Council of ministers/ cabinet
As in 2021
Pravin Kumar and Rajiv Srivastava, Sep 28, 2021: The Times of India
If the Bharatiya Janata Party has grown way beyond its initial image of an urban upper caste outfit, Sunday’s expansion of the Yogi Adityanath government was another step towards a new BJP with a caste bouquet more diverse than ever before.
What’s the big picture?
The Adityanath ministry is working at its full strength – 60, including the CM. Out of these, 24 are cabinet ministers, nine ministers of state with independent charge and 27 junior ministers.
In terms of caste balance, it has tilted in favour of backwards-scheduled caste. The cabinet now has 28 upper caste ministers and 29 backwards-SCs. If one includes to the list the lone scheduled tribe minister Sanjeev Gond and Sikh minister Baldev Singh Aulakh, who is a Jat, the number of non-upper caste ministers touches 31. Before the expansion, this number was 25. Mohsin Raza, of course, is the only Muslim minister since the beginning of this government.
If revisiting former CM Kalyan Singh’s plan to make an outreach towards the non-Yadav OBCs gave rich dividends to BJP in UP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections under the stewardship of Amit Shah – who was the state in-charge – it has been improvising the formula ever since. In the past three elections, it has been successful in neutralising the impact of the combined strength of Muslims, Yadavs and Jatavs among Dalits, the groups which have shown little sign of aligning with the saffron outfit, so far.
While Yadavs and Jatavs continue to be the loyal voters of SP and BSP respectively, Muslims staunchly back the party which is best positioned to defeat BJP. The combined voting strength of these three is approximately 40% in the state. BJP’s success lies in consolidating the remaining 60%. It’s pure math.
What’s BJP’s tactical approach?
The party has been curating its caste bouquet constantly to achieve that target. In 2014, it forged an alliance with Apna Dal, which has a strong presence among Kurmis, the second-most impactful caste among OBCs after Yadavs. Before 2017 assembly polls, NDA also included Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which has a significant sway over Rajbhars, one of the most backward castes found in good numbers in over two dozen constituencies of east UP. As 2019 Lok Sabha polls were round the corner, the party took into alliance NISHAD party, the outfit of Mallahs, the boatmen and fishermen to neutralise the impact of SBSP’s exit.
Results of 2017 Vidhan Sabha and 2019 Lok Sabha elections show how far it has succeeded in doing so. The 2019 Parliament elections are a case in point when it was predicted that the coming together of SP and BSP, which meant the consolidation of Yadav, Muslim and Jatav votes, would upset the BJP’s caste calculus. But it had very limited impact, simply because BJP added 7.3% more votes to its tally of 2014 to touch almost 50% vote share. These voters were none other than the small caste groups among OBCs and SCs, who were not happy with the dominance of Yadavs and Jatavs and gravitated towards the saffron party.
While Ram temple movement provided the initial glue for a grand Hindu consolidation, the subsequent fortification of the vote bank has been sheer micro caste management. The seven ministers who were inducted reflect this.
Jitin Prasada is the lone upper caste entrant. With his inclusion, the number of Brahmins in the cabinet rose to 10, two more than Thakurs. While the two castes have traditionally been at loggerheads, especially in the eastern region of the state, a section of Brahmins has been sulking for various reasons. BJP’s aim is to placate them.
What are other takeaways?
Out of seven new ministers, there are four first-time MLAs. It shows that the party is consciously building a new leadership.
Second, the number of women in the ministry is just four which is on the lower side. There is no woman as cabinet minister.
Third, although the number of backward and scheduled castes has increased significantly, 19 out of 30 backward and SC-ST ministers are MoS. That means little share in decision-making.
UP’s deputy CM Keshav Maurya counters this charge. “In BJP, even an MLA has the clout of a cabinet minister and has an equal say in the matter of governance,” he says.
Declaration of weapons
2017
See graphic:
Declarations of weapons by women contestants in their poll affidavits
Eastern UP
2009-18
Subhash Mishra, Key to Delhi could lie in eastern UP, March 29, 2019: The Times of India
From: Subhash Mishra, Key to Delhi could lie in eastern UP, March 29, 2019: The Times of India
SP-BSP’s Winning Gorakhpur Gambit Will Be Back In Play
Eastern UP, the region that will play a key role in the numbers game for the next Lok Sabha, will see a triangular contest as Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav and Priyanka Gandhi slug it out.
For Akhilesh, who is contesting from Azamgarh, it’s a maiden foray into the region, which accounts for 35 Lok Sabha seats. BJP dominated the region in both the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the 2017 assembly polls. In 2014, it won 32 of the 35 LS seats here.
Akhilesh’s father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav had won Azamgarh by 60,000 votes against BJP’s Ramakant Yadav in 2014, when BJP had swept the region riding the Modi wave. BJP is yet to announce its nominee, but speculation is rife that Bhojpuri film star Dinesh Lal Yadav aka Nirahua, who joined BJP on Thursday, may take on the SP chief.
Azamgarh has a large Yadav and Muslim population, so the caste arithmetic favours Akhilesh. Nirahua is from neighbouring Ghazipur and BJP hopes to exploit his star power among Bhojpurispeaking population.
Eastern UP comprises the most densely populated areas and has been historically crippled by poverty and backwardness. Human development indicators of the region have been worse than even drought-prone Bundelkhand.
Out of 21 CMs since Independence, including Yogi, nine belonged to this region, yet it lags in employment, industrial development, infrastructure, investment and agriculture. Under Yogi, state machinery has shifted focus to the eastern region but it is yet to show tangible impact.
After the decline of Congress in the late 1980s, BJP gradually captured eastern UP, drawing strength from the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and three seats of religious power — Ram temple in Ayodhya, Gorakhnath temple in Gorakhpur, which is Yogi’s home ground, and Kashi Vishwanath temple in Varanasi. But the rise of SP and BSP after their 1993 alliance dealt a blow to saffron power.
The regional allies dominated the region for more than a decade when BJP was reduced to 10 seats in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls. However, in 2014, BJP turned the caste mathematics upside down, winning a large chunk of OBCs from SP and non-Jatav Dalits from BSP.
The onus, therefore, is on Akhilesh to revive the alliance. By tying up with BSP and snatching away Yogi’s bastion Gorakhpur in a bypoll, he showed it’s possible. In eastern UP, he has entered alliances with smaller outfits, such as Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (Nishad) Party. The latter comprises primarily Mallahs (boatmen community), who wield considerable influence in Gorakhpur, Bhadohi and neighbouring areas. In the Gorakhpur bypoll, SP loaned its candidate from Nishad — Praveen Nishad, who won. He is likely to be re-nominated.
BJP is banking on Modi and Yogi and their development plank in Varanasi and Gorakhpur. Since 2014, Modi has rolled out development projects to the tune of Rs 2 lakh crore in Varanasi. Yogi, after becoming CM, has followed Modi’s development model in Gorakhpur.
Congress has had a late start. After its attempts to join the grand alliance failed, Rahul Gandhi deployed his sister Priyanka with the objective of reviving the party in east UP. Her Ganga yatra from Allahabad to Varanasihas enthused the cadre and filled a leadership vacuum. But the Congress vote can cut both ways. If it win over Muslims, it will dent SP-BSP. If upper castes gravitate towards it, BJP will be in trouble.
Fractured verdicts/ 1969-2007
As far as electoral turmoil goes, Uttar Pradesh has seen it all. Splits, betrayal of alliances, mass defections, hung legislatures, President's rule, mid-term elections, and ruling parties flipping CMs.
Since 2007, two successive governments completed their terms and so a sense of UP's frothy history seems to have edged out of public memory .But this smooth stability was the exception rather than rule. So, it will not be surprising if this time around there is a fractured verdict.
Of the 16 assemblies elected since 1952, a single party got the majority of seats and ruled for the full term only seven times. On the remaining nine occasions, governments came and went in rapid succession, some lasting two to three years and others collapsing within days.
UP was the first state in the country to get a non-Congress government. Back in 1967, Charan Singh and his socialist colleagues left the Congress, formed the Bharatiya Kranti Dal, and took over the reins of office. This was a big event then because the Congress had a near invincible hold over governance across the country . Rising food prices and droughts fuelled sharp political discontent and people's desire for change.
As a result of the political instability , President's rule was imposed in UP 10 times, a record of sorts. The last time the state went under Central rule was in 2002.
Another consequence of the instability was the need to seek fresh mandates through mid-term elections. This happened seven times in the past, the last time in 1998. A parsing of this topsy-turvy history shows that in the early years, UP , like most of the country , was captivated by the Congress, more so because some of its biggest political figures were from the state. After the 1967 upheaval, the Congress's invincibility came into question. Alternatives were searched for by the people.
In the 1970s, despite the Emergency , Congress rule was fragmented repeatedly by a parade of CMs who got miffed and either quit or were axed.
Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna quit during the Emergency , bringing President's rule, and after the Emergency was lifted, Bahuguna joined the Opposition. Earlier, Kamlapati Tri pathi had to quit after a Provincial Armed Constabulary (PAC) revolt rocked the state.Then, in 1977, the Janata Party formed government.
Although the Congress won again in 1980, and had luminaries like V P Singh and N D Tiwari as CMs, all that came to nought as a restless electorate refused to be pacified.The Janata Dal won in 1989.
Then began a phase of deep turbulence, helped along by the Mandal effect and rise of caste based politics which was a way of the deprived sections flexing their political muscle. This phase lasted till BSP won a majority in 2007.
Issues dominating elections
2006-17: Land
Ashish Tripathi, Land united UP tillers, religion now divides them, Jan 27, 2017: The Times of India
July 8, 2006 to December 2006
Four farmers died and scores were injured in clashes with police during protests against the acquisition of around 45,000 hectare of land for a power project in Dadri, Gautam Budh Nagar. Farmers claimed that the land acquired for the project was much more than required and they were given a pittance as compensation.
Sept 28, 2015
5 0-year-old Mohammad Akhlaq was beaten to death and his 22-year-old son injured in Dadri, by a Hindu mob following rumours about the family storing and consuming beef after slaughtering a cow. Lucknow: In just a decade, issues governing politics in UP have changed. In 2006, a united farmer community --transcending religious divides -fought the state government against acquiring land for a private project. In 2015, people fought among themselves in the name of religion. In 2006, Mulayam Singh Yadav was UP CM and in 2015, his son Akhilesh.
Between 2006 and 2012, the issues dominating elections were agriculture, land acquisition, corruption, law and order, social engineering and backwardness in the main. Ram temple politics had lost relevance. But after the 2013 Muzzaffarnagar riots, things started changing for the worse. People who'd never mistrusted each other -especially western UP's farmers -began fighting each other. Dadri in 2006 brought out the injustice being done to people dependent on farming through an 1894 Raj-era land acquisition law. Most of the land acquisition was for development projects like the Yamuna Expressway under the urgency clause enshrined in an 1894 law that did not permit negotiations with land owners. Besides monetary compensation, people were promised jobs, but were given nothing. Dadri's farmers, across castes and religion, fought together and got relief from the high court in 2009.In 2014, the Supreme Court upheld the high court decision. People got back their land.
The 2006 Dadri agitation paved the way for similar movements elsewhere in the state. Most of these were peaceful, but some turned violent. In January 2009, a farmer died in police firing during protests against land acquisition for an expressway at Bajna in Mathura. In August 2010, Tappal in Aligarh saw a violent protests for higher compensation against land acquired for a township which left five dead, including two policemen.
A farmer was killed during protests against land acquisition at Karchana in Allahabad in January 2011. And, that May , four died in a police-farmer clash against land acquisition in Bhatta-Parsaul, Gautam Budh Nagar. And the tribal belt of Lakhimpur Kheri, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Chandauli saw a mass agitation for implementation of the Forest Rights Act 2006.
Farmers refused to part with their land, approached the courts and won. The Allahabad High Court passed over two dozen orders between 2009 and 2011 quashing land acquisitions in over 30 UP districts.
In 2012, farmers' protest and land acq u i sition became major election issues and Mayawati-led BSP had to bear the brunt. The Bhatta-Parsaul agitation made land acquisition a national issue and all parties were forced to enact the 2013 land acquisition law.
After 2013, UP, particularly its west ern part, saw a series of communal clashes in the name of Love Jihad, cow slaughter and puja yatras leading to the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots in which over 65 were killed and more than 65,000 displaced. Jats and Muslims, who voted together till 2012, fell out.The impact of the polarisation helped BJP sweep the 2014 LS polls. The state hasn't seen any farmer movement since.
The mistrust between Jats and Muslims and even dalits and Muslims is now deep-seated. West UP farmers, who had never fought among themselves on communal lines are today sharply divided, so much so that Jats and dalits, who never got along well in the past, came on the same page. BJP expects this will help it fare well in the assembly election too.
2017: The caste arithmetic in the assembly elections
Dipankar Gupta, The Great Caste Delusion, Mar 25, 2017: The Times of India
Modi got his sociology right in UP, which is why BJP left its opponents in the dust
When it comes to elections politicians, psephologists, punters and pundits all begin to think caste. This may not occupy them when discussing venture capitalists, or sports or financial crises. But come elections and the air is abuzz with caste calculations, caste chemistry , or pure casteism.
This time around it was different in Uttar Pradesh, and it needed BJP to drive this home. Modi called the caste bluff, and not just the Yadav bluff, and won. He did well because he got his sociology right. It was always known that Yadavs number, at best, no more than 11% of UP's population, but everybody behaved as if they were the dominant majority and could win seats on their own.
In Mainpuri, where Yadavs are probably at their best at a respectable 18%, the Samajwadi Party (SP) won.Before we jump to conclusions let us take in other places, like Ghazipur and Jaunpur, where with an identical population profile, SP lost. Obviously numbers were not enough, nor is it as if every Yadav voted SP. In Jaunpur, for example, it was a Yadav, but from BJP, who swung the seat away from those other Yadavs in Akhilesh's camp.
West UP has roughly 9% Jats but is widely considered to be a Jat stronghold, for reasons never made clear. Yet the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), headed by the son of legendary Jat strong man Charan Singh, lost every seat in that part of UP but the one in Chaprauli. However, in other West UP constituencies like Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Saharanpur and Agra, which had the same percentage of Jats, RLD was nowhere in sight.Interestingly Kapil Dev Agarwal, a Baniya by caste, won in Muzaffarnagar.
Not only is it a fact that no caste numerically dominates any constituency but, as we just found, caste votes are also divided. This truth is demonstrated election after election, 2015 Bihar being the latest example. At that time BJP did a caste deal with Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in the hope of winning over the subaltern castes. The calculation failed as LJP managed to win but two of the 40 seats it had contested and it actually figured much worse than in its previous outings.
Modi wisely changed his tack in UP.He set out to unshuffle the caste cards and pull in everybody . BJP fielded every caste: It was a hand that very few ever dealt during election time. There was a smattering of Yadavs, but also Brahmins, Baniyas and Rajputs as well as Kushwahas, Kurmis and Shakyas, Musahars and Dosadhs. If one were to talk in caste terms then all castes, from forwards to backwards to SCs received equal opportunity treatment. This made both caste chemistry and caste arithmetic look silly , but what stands out instead is sociology.
The reason why Yadavs and Jats looked larger than life till about two decades ago was these two were socially the best endowed of all the peasant castes. They were the most literate, had the most land, leading to better connections with police and bureaucracy.As a result, they acted as patrons for the rest and conduits for the less privileged to reach out to the bigger world.
So, if a rural Kurmi or Saini wanted an application forwarded to get a water connection, a ration card, or a job as peon, the first port of call would be either a Jat or a Yadav. This gave the impression, to both outsiders and insiders, that certain areas were dominated by Jats or Yadavs. The elementary mistake they all made was to confuse social prominence with numerical majority .
After seven decades of democracy many things have changed. Land reform and reservations have upturned old social arrangements radically . There are no landlords, only a swarm of owner cultivators. Literacy and urbanisation have, over the years, created a class of literati and virtuosos among non-Jats and nonYadavs too. They are now as well-equipped as anybody else to push applications for urban jobs or stand up to a local cop.
This has led to the collapse of the old vote banks where one had to just win over the notables to one's side. In those days it was patron versus patron and this is why Jat and Yadav presence appeared so magnified. This was equally true among the Jatavs, though that process started a little later. In the 1980s SCs like Dusadhs and Musahars went to Jatavs, who were the best positioned among them, for help. Now they no longer need to be so dependent as literacy and urban occupations have come down to their ranks too.Mayawati's isolation in recent times is, largely , on account of the diminishing charm of her Jatav vote bank.
Under these conditions, to think in terms of pure caste numbers or specific caste unities makes little sense. There are still hard core caste peddlers who would like to call Modi's strategy as a non-Yadav OBC caste consolidation.This goes against the basic rationale of the caste order. Sociologists will tell us that no caste thinks well of any other caste and this can be gauged from the strict inter-marriage and inter-dining restrictions that all castes observe.Admittedly, these features are not quite as powerful as they once were because of urbanisation and literacy, but have not disappeared either.
To think then that there is a caste logic that binds diverse communities is clearly fanciful. When such unities emerge, it must be for reasons other than caste, like economic mobility . Nobody is uncomfortable with luck, especially during elections, but a little sociology is more reliable.
Status in 2017
The funeral pyre has been set, logs and the dead fixed in their place at the holy Harishchandra Ghat and the family of the deceased has climbed up several stones to fetch embers from the undying fire of Kalu Dom Raja, the legendary keeper of the holy flame.
While a dying Hindu might not find Moksh (release from the cycle of rebirth) unless the 'untouchable' Dom gives 'Mukhagni' to the pyre, the scheduled caste community settled along the Harishchandra and Manikarnika Ghats in Varanasi, however lives a secluded life.
Sans any political representation and will from parties to work for them, the community feels it has been lagged behind in education and employment all these years, facing discrimination and jostling with age old taboos for women, even in today's times.
According to the 2011 Census, Uttar Pradesh has a population of 1,10,353 Doms primarily settled in Varanasi.
"We are descendants of Kalu Dom Raja who was the owner of Satyawaadi Raja Harishchandra after he had given away all his belongings from his kingdom to his family and clothes to the sage Vishwamitra on the latter's perusal. He used to do his duty as a Dom here in Kashi and so devoted was he to his work and to truth that even when his son Rohitdas died, he asked his wife for karmdaan. When she tore the sides of her sari to give the same, the Gods descended on to Earth grieving for Harishchandra. It was because of him that we came to be known even though the community has been doing this work since the time death existed," said Pawan Chowdhury, a Dom popularly known as 'doctor' in the community.
Drenched in history and legend, the community has however been unable to move ahead of the work, the stench of which fills up every second of the breeze that flows across the fabled cremation ghats. "It has been over ten years that we have been asking successive governments to restore the Kalu Dom Raja Mahal but nothing was done. For four continuous months when the Ganga is flooded, the ghats cannot be used for cremation and we have to burn the dead in the narrow alleys of our slum like homes, filling even our personal lives with the filthy work. But not one government has considered out demand for a platform at the Harishchandra Ghat," said Chowdhury.
Poking at the burning dead with bamboo so as to shake off the accumulating carbon, Babu Chowdhury said, "The ghat alone has a voter population of 1400-1500 untouched by any election campaign. We have no homes, no incentives, no schemes reaching us. The only time someone comes to us in humility is when they are dead. And the community claims it is not untouched by discrimination either. "It is lower than in older times but even now when people come to know who we are, they distance themselves. Kehte hain, dekho ye body jalake aaya hai, sata toh nahi hoga usse, baas toh nahi laga hoga (They say look he has come after burning the dead, what if the body and the bamboo has touched him), even after we have cleaned up properly," said Raju Dom.
At the Manikarnika Ghat considered to be the holier of the two cremation grounds, the scene is no different. Bodies after bodies have been entering through narrow lanes, taking embers from the claimed to be 22,000 old burning fire of the Dom Raja who sits guarding it religiously. "Not more than five to six years back, we used to get Rs 85 for the work, Rs 15 for giving the fire and Rs 50 for burning the dead that takes around three hours per body. Now the price is around Rs 300. But what is that money in these times? How can we teach our children and get ration to eat?" said Mata Prasad. "The fact remains that no government thinks of us. Why can't they keep two municipal workers to clean up the ghats after the work, that is currently left onto us too.
Should we do our menial work or clean the ghats? This is the bare minimum," said Vishwanath Chowdhury, Dom Raja at Manikarnika Ghat. The ghat is said to be the abode of Shiv and Parvati when they were on a tour of Kashi as also the place where Shiv's earring (kundal) had fallen off while taking a bathe, heance the name 'Manikarnika'.
Struggling under one political party to another, a few youth from the community have now taken up a few initiatives, collecting funds from within the community. One such is the cremation of destitute unclaimed bodies bring brought to the ghat. "The gadiyas who were made incharge of the work by the police to dispose of such bodies would drag them down the steps leaving behind a trail of blood, and drown the bodies directly in Ganga in the limited money they got for the work. Three years back we took over the task for free and now even the unclaimed is given a proper end," said Pawan.
To move forward from the tag of being down on the social ladder, the youth have also started a Ganga Arti at the Harishchandra Ghat since February 1 to attract tourists and jostle for equal space. The ghats around the cremation grounds have also been taken up by the Doms for beautification setting up a flower garden.
Legislative Assembly
Rules of procedure
2023
Maulshree Seth, August 8, 2023: The Indian Express
In a first in the last 65 years, the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly is set to get new rules of procedure that would not only put in place stricter guidelines for the conduct of the members but also ensure digitisation of the process of conducting the business of the House.
The members, who have courted controversy in the past for doing Facebook live from inside the well of the House, will now not be allowed to carry mobile phones inside the Assembly besides being disallowed from carrying firearms, flags or banners, according to the new rules.
Once passed, the Rules of Procedures and Conduct of Business of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly, 2023, would replace the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business of UP Legislative Assembly, 1958.
Having witnessed unruly scenes in the past, the members would not be allowed to tear any document inside the House as per the new rules.
Also, the time period for summons to the members, which was earlier 14 days before the Assembly is summoned by the Governor, will now be seven days.
Moreover, the medium of information, which was either newspapers, gazettes or “wires” would be “electronic communication” as well. Under the new rules, answers to questions will be uploaded online half-an-hour before the start of the session for easy reference for everyone and not just the member who raised the question, it is learnt.
According to the proposed rules, the members will not be allowed to show their back to the speaker’s chair or to approach the speaker’s seat on their own.
Also, showing of placards and banners, which has become a routine, will not be allowed inside the Assembly, nor would the members be able to distribute any literature, questions, books or press statements not related to the functioning of the House. Besides, the members will have to ensure that they do not speak or laugh so loudly in the lobby that it is heard inside the Assembly.
They will not be allowed to read any written speech without prior permission of the speaker, nor would they be allowed to take names of officers inside the Assembly. The new rules will be open for discussion and proposed amendments till August 9 and are likely to be passed on the last day of this session i.e. August 11.
According to the new rules, maximum of two supplementary questions will be allowed unless allowed by the speaker.
The new rules, it was claimed, will also make the government more accountable. For instance, for calling attention to the matters of urgent public importance, the government will be required to give reply to the member concerned and the Assembly secretariat within 30 days.
Also, if a minister is not in a position to answer “short-notice questions” at a short notice, he/she, while informing the Assembly secretariat about it, will also be required to give a reason in brief for not being able to do so.
Besides, any speech given in the Upper House would not be quoted in the Assembly unless it is related to a policy.
Speaker
Election of Speaker: conventions
All eyes looked for veteran BJP official Hriday Narain Dixit when protem speaker Fateh Bahadur Singh announced his (Dixit's) election as the new speaker of the UP assembly. As per tradition, the `speakerelect' should have been in another room -or not present among the MLAs -when his name was announced. But, a smiling Dixit sat in the front row with a group of MLAs in a break from convention. He was then taken jointly by the CM and the leader of opposition to his chair.
Later, while addressing the members, Dixit revealed how, by remaining seated with MLAs, he broke from a British tradition. He informed the House that parliamentary traditions of the country had developed on the pattern of British Parliament where the speaker acted as a messenger of the House to the monarch. He said, nearly half-a-dozen speakers were killed in British history for carrying unfavourable messages of the House to the king or queen. So, the House began concealing the identity of the speaker. Later, this became a tradition. At the time of their appointment or election, the speaker-elect would hide himself and then the prime minister would search for him and produce him before Parliament.
“This has been the practice in UP assembly: that the speaker-elect would hide himself in the office of the legislature party or behind a chair, and once he is formally elected, he is brought out from the `hiding' by the leader of the House. “In an Independent country , why should a British legacy , which can be done away with, continue?“ Dixit said, as members broke into laughter.
Leader of Opposition
2017/ ‘Leader of Opposition’s election unconstitutional’
Guv red-flags Akhilesh move to appoint LoP, March 29, 2017: The Times of India
Uttar Pradesh governor Ram Naik red-flagged the haste with which the Samajwadi Party recommended the name of Ram Gobind Chaudhary as the Leader of Opposition.
Describing the election of the LoP by outgoing Speaker Mata Prasad Pandey as unconstitutional, the governor said that since Pandey had lost the election, he was just `technically' the Speaker. “Constitutionally , he cannot take any such decision,“ Naik said.
Meanwhile, in a significant departure from tradition, former CM and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was unanimously elected as the leader of SP legislature party on Tuesday . Akhilesh will now be the combined leader of the party in both the assembly and the legislative council, SP spokesman Rajendra Chaudhary said.
LS seats in which these parties have generally lost…
SP-BSP, 1999-2014
The SP-led by former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and BSP-led by his predecessor Mayawati has announced that their alliance would contest the coming polls in an alliance sharing 38 seats each out of 80, leaving the remaining four to Congress and the RLD.
HIGHLIGHTS
1. These 11 constituencies have remained either with the BJP or the Congress
2. Hathras, Mathura and Bareilly seats have also remained with the BJP
3. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP and the SP won 19 and 35 seats respectively
There are 11 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh which the prospective partners in the coming polls--Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)--have never won since 1999.
The SP-led by former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and BSP-led by his predecessor Mayawati has announced that their alliance would contest the coming polls in an alliance sharing 38 seats each out of 80, leaving the remaining four to Congress and the RLD.
Both the parties have been unable to win seats like Baghpat, Hathras, Mathura, Bareilly and Pilibhit in western UP and Amethi, Raebareli, Kushinagar (earlier known as Padrauna) and Varanasi in eastern UP and Lucknow and Kanpur in central UP.
These 11 constituencies have remained either with the BJP or the Congress or the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) during the period. Congress has not lost the Raebareli and the Amethi seats from the state since 1999.
Amethi, which is now represented by Congress President Rahul Gandhi, was earlier won by his mother Sonia Gandhi in 1999. Rahul Gandhi has not lost the three elections he contested starting from 2004 from Amethi.
While his mother now represents the Raebareli seat, which has also remained with the Congress since 1999. Congress's Captain Satish Sharma had won the 1999 election from Rae Bareli. Sonia Gandhi has been winning from the seat since 2004.
Even the high-profile seat of Varanasi, which is now rerpresented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been shared by BJP (thrice) and Congress (once) since 1999. Before Modi, Varanasi was represented by BJP veteran Murali Manohar Joshi in 2009 and by BJP's Shankar Prasad Jaiswal in 1999. Congress's Rajesh Kumar Mishra defated BJP's Jaiswal in 2004 Lok Sabha polls from the seat.
Similarly, the BJP has not lost a single election from Lucknow, which is now represented by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh. Former Prime Minister late Atal Bihari Vajpayee won the 1999 and 2004 general elections from Lucknow. After he retired from the active politics, the seat was represented by BJP's Lalji Tandon in 2009.
Pilibhit parliamentary seat has also not been won by the BSP or the SP since 1999. The seat is represented by Union Minister for Women and Child Development Minister Maneka Gandhi since 1999. Maneka Gandhi had fought the 1999 election as an independent candidate. She again won from the Pilibhit in 2004 as a BJP candidate.
However, Maneka Gandhi used the seat to launch her son Varun Gandhi, who successfully contested in 2009 and won the election. Maneka Gandhi successfully returned from Pilibhit in 2014 elections.
Baghpat was represented by Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh in 1999, 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls. However, the seat was wrested away from the RLD in 2014 elections by BJP's Satyapal Singh. Similarly, Kanpur, went to the BJP's Murali Manohar Joshi in 2014 polls. Before Joshi, the seat was represented by Congress's Shriprakash Jaiswal from 1999 to 2009.
The seats of Hathras, Mathura and Bareilly, known to be dominated by Jat and Gujjar communities, have also remained with the BJP, the Congress and the RLD by turns since 1999. The SP and the BSP could not manage to win from these seats.
The SP and the BSP have also never won from the Kushinagar Lok Sabha seat since 1999. Kushinagar, which was earlier known as Padrauna in 1999 and 2004 was won by the BJP's Ram Nagina Mishra and Baleshwar Yadav of the NLP respectively.
Congress's Kumar Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan won the seat in 2009 polls, while the BJP's Rajesh Ranjan aka Guddu won it in 2014.
The BJP had won 71 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha, while its ally Apna Dal had won two. The Congress managed to save its Raebareli and Amethi seats while the SP won from five seats.
The Congress had won 21 seats in the 2009 elections in the state while the SP and the BSP won 23 and 23 seats respectively. The BJP had won 10 seats and the RLD had won five seats.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP and the SP won 19 and 35 seats respectively, while the Congress took 9 and the BJP 10. The RLD had won two seats. Five seats were won by other parties.
In 1999, when Uttarakhand was not carved out of the Uttar Pradesh, the SP and the BSP had won on 26 and 13 seats resspectively out of the 85 parliamentary seats. The BJP had won on 27 seats while the Congress managed to win only 10. The RLD won on one seat while others managed to win on 18 seats.
Members of the legislative assembly (MLAs)
Number of children
As in 2021
Atul Thakur and Rema Nagarajan, July 14, 2021: The Times of India
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From: Atul Thakur and Rema Nagarajan, July 14, 2021: The Times of India
According to information provided by the Uttar Pradesh state assembly, of the 397 current MLAs whose bio profiles are uploaded on its website, 304 are from the ruling party of which 152 (exactly half) have three or more children.
One of the MLAs has eight children — the highest in this list. There is one another with seven children. Apart from them, there are eight members with six children each while 15 are parents of five children each. Another 44 MLAs from the ruling party have four children each, while 83 have three children each. All of them would get disqualified if similar norms were to be applied to the state legislature.
Another irony can be spotted on the Lok Sabha’s list of business. The BJP’s Gorakhpur MP and Bhojpuri film actor Ravi Kishan, who himself has four children, has been listed to introduce the Population Control Bill, 2019, which aims at controlling population growth in the country. Private member’s bills have little chance of being passed without the support of the government. According to PRS Legislative, Parliament has not passed any private members' bills since 1970.
Like the UP proposal, this bill too focuses on disincentivising couples having more than two children by making them ineligible for government jobs and subsidies. Incidentally, according to the Lok Sabha website,168 sitting MPs have three or more children of which 105 are BJP members.
In December last year, in response to a PIL seeking a population control law based on the China model, the union government told the Supreme Court that India was on the verge of achieving a replacement level of fertility rate of 2.1 through various voluntary birth control measures. It added that international experience like the China model showed that any coercion to have a certain number of children was counter-productive and would lead to demographic distortion.
The Union health ministry submitted that 25 of 36 states/ UTs had already achieved replacement level fertility of 2.1 or less. But 146 districts in seven states – UP (57), Bihar (37), Rajasthan (14), MP (25), Chhattisgarh (2), Jharkhand (9) and Assam (2) — had fertility rates above 3. According to the Census office, 2001-11 was the first decade in the last 100 years in which India added less to its population than in the previous one, it added.
Muslim MLAs
1995-2022
From: Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
From: Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
From: Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
From: Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
See graphics:
No. of Muslim MLAs in Uttar Pradesh, 1995- 2022
In 2012, SP won 28 of 57 Muslim-majority seats
148 Muslims contested as Independents in 2017. Zero won
38 of 57 Muslim majority seats had more than 60% turnout in 2022
2017, 2022
The number of Muslim winners in 2022 UP assembly polls has shot up to 34 from 2017 election’s 24, which was the lowest ever Muslim representation in the House. Barring three, all other winners are from Samajwadi Party. Of the three, two contested on RLD ticket while one was an SBSP candidate.
The Muslim vote
As in the 2019 elections
Sagarika Ghose, The M-Factor In Maya’s Maths, April 10, 2019: The Times of India
From: Sagarika Ghose, The M-Factor In Maya’s Maths, April 10, 2019: The Times of India
Cong Has Fielded Stronger Candidates Against BSP, But May Have Given Walkover To SP
BSP chief Mayawati’s recent call to Muslims not to divide their vote only mirrors a key question blowing through Western UP’s dusty dirt tracks. From Saharanpur to Rampur to Moradabad, across UP’s most densely populated Muslim districts, will the failure of the Opposition to form a mahagathbandhan, or an alliance between SP, BSP and Congress, lead to the Muslim vote being divided, thus giving the advantage to the ruling BJP?
In focus is Congress, which, in Rahul Gandhi’s words, wants to play on the “front foot” in UP. In Saharanpur, for example, where Mayawati and Akhilesh addressed their first joint rally, Congress candidate Imran Masood who once threatened to dismember PM Narendra Modi, is seen as a strongman. Masood polled 4 lakh votes in 2014 and lost by only 65,000 votes. With the gathbandhan also putting up a Muslim candidate, BSP’s Haji Fazlur Rahman, competition for the Muslim vote is intense. CM Yogi Adityanath recently called Masood Jaish chief “Masood Azhar’s son-in-law”. Some here feel that Yogi’s attack on Masood will serve to polarise Muslims towards Masood, weakening the gathbandhan.
But in neighbouring Rampur, the only Muslim majority district in UP, Congress seems to have fielded what locals describe as a “dummy candidate” — former MLA Sanjay Kapoor, an upper-caste Hindu, who is expected to cut into BJP’s vote, paving the way for Samajwadi Party’s Azam Khan’s Lok Sabha debut.
Pitted against Khan is Jaya Prada, the two-time SP MP, who has moved to BJP. Says advocate Zafar Husain, “It was Azam Khan who made Jaya Prada win...Muslims will rally behind him.”
Across western UP, Congress has fielded candidates who are likely to draw strong Muslim support in seats where BSP has put up contenders. In Bijnor, for example, Congress has fielded former BSP leader Nasimuddin Siddiqui against gathbandhan candidate, BSP’s Malook Nagar, a Gujjar. “Combined Dalit-Muslim support is needed for a gathbandhan win,” says Anwar Kamal, a local journalist, “but this becomes difficult with a strong Congress candidate in Bijnor like Nasimuddin.”
In Moradabad, Congress has fielded Urdu poet Imran Pratapgarhi while the gathbandhan candidate is Samajwadi Party’s Dr ST Hasan. “Hasan is a strong candidate for us as he is a social worker and provides pro bono medical care,” says brass industry artisan Ubaid Khan. That Congress shifted state chief Raj Babbar out of Moradabad, indicates a “friendly fight” with Hasan, known to be a close associate of Azam Khan.
“Muslims in western UP will look for which candidate can get non-Muslim votes,” says brass artisan Habibur Rahman, “and the chances are that although many may favour Congress or like the Congress, in the end, they will line up behind the gathbandhan.”
Where Congress is in support of the gathbandhan candidate, and not in competition, arithmetic is on gathbandhan’s side. For example, in Amroha, the gathbandhan candidate is ex-JDS leader Danish Ali who switched over to BSP only in February. Ali is being supported by Congress.
There is a feeling here that the intense competition and bad blood between BSP and Congress is the result of Mayawati’s fears that, after her recent poor showing in the 2014 and 2017 elections, Dalit votes could move to Congress. The recent meeting between the new face of young Dalits, Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan and Priyanka Gandhi have heightened these fears. In this situation, there is a tug of war between the head and heart. In certain seats voters’ natural inclinations are towards candidates who may not win. Yet, it isn’t just the division of the Muslim vote but the continuing Hindu-Muslim polarisation on the ground that haunts western UP’s politics.
“Muslims have very serious feelings of fear and insecurity this time,” says poet Abdul Wahab ‘Sukhal’. “Hindu Muslim plurality is deeply embedded in our subcontinental DNA. We are proud Hindustanis, by birth, by heritage. But that heritage is being systematically attacked. Our motto this time is, there’s no point feeling scared, vote instead.”
“What disturbs many Muslims about the gathbandhan,” says Rampur-based Dr Taufiq, “is which way will Mayawati go after polls? Will she move towards BJP, given that she has been a former BJP ally?”
Taufiq’s wife Dr Nusrat says many Muslims are scared that their names will go missing from voters’ lists. She has another concern, too. “This region is the area of India’s first education minister (Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad), yet today it lacks basic education... so far none of the parties —BJP, Congress or gathbandhan — has shown any interest in providing this urgent public need,” she says.
Economic compulsions sway the Muslim voter in western UP as much as security concerns. In Moradabad, the brass industry has been hit hard by the twin blows of demonetisation and GST. Artisans here say the Congress promise of income support of Rs 72,000 per year for 20% poorest households is highly attractive. Azam Ansari is the leader of the Moradabad Brass Artisans Association. “The industry suffered a 30 % drop in revenue after demonetisation and a 50% drop after GST. One lakh have migrated to Nepal, Bangladesh or the Gulf. Some highly skilled artisans are now fruit-sellers or drive e-rickshaws. In this situation an income support as promised by Congress is a good option for us.”
“For Muslims in UP, there are two types of elections, a Delhi election and a Lucknow election,” says award winning Moradabadi poet Mansoor Usmani. “For national polls, there is an inclination towards a national party like Congress. For assembly polls, voters may gravitate towards SP or BSP. People make a difference between a Lucknow ka election and a Delhi ka election.” A popular saying in Rampur goes: ‘topi pehna ke, chaaku pher dete hain,’ and many here say they are deliberating who to vote for, because in the end their decision has to be as swift and effective as wielding the Rampuri chaku.
2022: From deciding factor to irrelevance
Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
From: Parvez Iqbal Siddiqui, March 11, 2022: The Times of India
The support of the Muslim community, which accounts for more than 19% of UP’s population, was once considered crucial for any party to form the government. Not so any longer. Consider this: Samajwadi Party (SP) won 34 of the 57 Muslim-majority seats and its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal two. BJP saw its Muslim-majority seat count drop from 37 last time to 20. However, this did not have any impact on its prospects in the 2022 assembly election. It still got a big majority with 255 of the assembly's 403 seats.
This started in 2014, when BJP reached out to OBC (other backward classes) and MBC (most backward classes) voters as part of its targeted Hindu consolidation for the Lok Sabha polls. The minority vote was left marginalised electorally. Not one Muslim MP made it to Lok Sabha.
And by the next assembly election in 2017, the number of Muslim MLAs dwindled to 25. It was a sharp drop from the 68 in 2012 — the highest ever in the UP assembly and, possibly, a polarising political talking point. This, when there are over 120 assembly constituencies out of the total 403 which have a sizeable Muslim population – 20% or more. In Rampur, Muslims constitute more than 50% of the population. In Moradabad and Sambhal, it is 47%. Bijnor, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli and Amroha have over 40% Muslims. Five other districts have a Muslim population between 30% and 40%, and 12 districts have 20% to 30% Muslims.
What happened to the Muslim vote?
Despite its numerical strength, the community has seen that its strategy of backing the most powerful candidate to defeat the BJP nominee in each constituency has not worked in four recent elections — 2014 Lok Sabha, 2017 assembly, 2019 Lok Sabha and now the 2022 assembly. This time, political parties, perhaps as a way to stop counter-polarisation of Hindu voters, have been noticeably silent on Muslim issues. Whether it is fielding Muslim candidates or backing anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protests, non-BJP parties have been mostly silent.
SP, historically a strong supporter of Muslim welfare, was no longer showcasing how many Muslim candidates it had fielded. BSP has moved its social engineering focus from the Dalit-Muslim combination to the Dalit-Brahmin alignment.
None of the major opposition players has come up with any community-specific promise in their manifestos. Political observers said that given the existing political circumstances, silence might be “better than speech”.
Many Muslim voters think so, too. Better not to give a handle to BJP to polarise the election.
“This seems to be one reason why BJP was unable to bring up any communal issue like the kabristan versus shamshaan debate in the past,” said Imran Asad, an entrepreneur from Bhadohi. In 2017, at a BJP rally in Fatehpur, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said that if a village built a graveyard (kabristan), a crematorium (shamshaan) must be built as well. The statement can be heard at the 1 hour 1 minute mark in this video.
Asad added, “Had SP, BSP or Congress participated in the anti-CAA protest or rather the farmers’ protest, the agitations would have been blunted by the BJP politically.”Mohammed Arif, principal of Sri DR Mahila Mahavidyalaya in Varanasi, said the community had perhaps realised that it was being marginalised like never before and was now coming together to regain its electoral significance.
“Taking out processions and raising demands during elections does not benefit (the community). The people are quiet but (they are) talking and discussing. We have tried to convince people that social bonding is essential and so is unity,” said Arif, also a noted historian and social thinker, referring to the practice of political parties fielding dummy Muslims candidates to divide Muslim votes in constituencies which have a good chunk of minority votes.
It’s about secularism, not just Muslims
Community leaders insist that it is not just about the Muslims. “In a democracy like India, it is not about keeping a community together but ensuring that the secular vote remains undivided,” said Maulana Ashhad Rashidi, the state chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind (JuH). He added that JuH had been reaching out to these ‘secular voters’, urging them to vote unitedly.
“Till now, all political parties were treating Muslims as a separate bloc and talking about the community’s problems separately. This created an image that Muslims were being treated differently even though their problems were exactly the same as the rest of the population,” said Maulana Khalid Rasheed Firangi Mahli, imam of Lucknow’s biggest Eidgah at Aishbagh.
“This time, thankfully, Muslims are not being demarcated as a separate chunk but a homogeneous part of the electorate and that is excellent for a secular democracy,” said Rasheed, who is also an executive committee member of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board.
Is that something that affects the chances of a party that positions itself as a Muslim-majority one, like the All India Majlis-e-Ittihadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)? Its chief Asaduddin Owaisi fielded candidates in 100 seats this time. Most community leaders said they think it would have some impact but not enough to alter equations. Arif said, “Owaisi is drawing crowds … and can disturb the arithmetic of major players in some places. But I don’t think it will have a major impact.”
The number of independent Muslim candidates was also not high. “The number of such candidates is lower than in previous elections,” Arif said.
As an example, a Muslim public officer who didn’t want to be named said, “In Kushinagar, an influential local Muslim entrepreneur announced he would contest the polls. When local community leaders asked him to assess if he was a serious contender, he realised he was more likely to divide the Muslim vote than to win the seat because of the caste equations and popularity of the other candidates.” So, he decided he wouldn’t contest. “There are more such examples,” the officer added.
What community leaders are trying to do, instead, to make the Muslim vote matter is get people to turn up and vote.
Top Shia cleric Maulana Saif Abbas said community leaders have come together and formed a UP Democratic Forum comprising a host of top national-level organisations like Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind, Jamat–e-Islami and All India Milli Council to focus on seats which have a sizeable Muslim population to encourage them to exercise their franchise. “In the 2017 elections, we found that the voter turnout of the community was lower than 50%. This time, we have encouraged them to ensure that their names are there on the electoral rolls and they go out and vote on polling day,” Abbas, the imam of Shahi Masjid at Chhota Imambara and chief of Shia Markazi Chand Committee, said. “We hope it works.”
Nishad community
2019: political power peaks
Neha Shukla, May 17, 2019: The Times of India
From: Neha Shukla, May 17, 2019: The Times of India
It wasn’t that Nishads in Uttar Pradesh were not seeking Scheduled Caste status before this, but if the ruling BJP government has agreed to their demand and started issuing them the ‘majhwar’ certificate in Purvanchal since April, it is for a reason that goes beyond welfare of the community.
Nishads are a consolidated chunk of voters no political party can afford to ignore. It was the SP-BSP-RLD combine which first tried to bring Nishads to its side this Lok Sabha election but failed to seal the deal. This gave BJP an opening, and the party swiftly capitalised on it to have a tieup with the Nishad party.
The word Nishad originates from ‘ni’, which stands for water, and ‘shad’, a reference to fishermen, boatmen and a clutch of communities that once thrived on water resources. Their leaders, who are reverentially referred to as kings, had a say in allocation of riverine resources.
Over a period of time and with the writ of the state expanding over rivers, the community was pushed down the social ladder. The focus on upper castes in the first four decades after Independence and the arrival of dominant OBCs as the new power elite ensured that they remained on the fringes until they, like other smaller castes, learned to play the numbers game in a fragmented polity.
This LS election, however, marks a turnaround for Nishads, who have emerged as a bargaining entity and a political force because their presence, in the form of the community platform, Nishad Party, has been acknowledged by the principal players.
Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party is contesting its first general election with the slogan ‘Jiska dal uska bal; uski samasyaon ka hal (Power rests with those who are a group, only they have the power to solve problems)’. The party is headquartered in Gorakhpur where Nishads constitute 24.7% of voters. Pravin Nishad, Gorakhpur MP and elder son of Sanjay Nishad who is the founding president of Nishad party, is in the fray from Sant Kabir Nagar on a BJP ticket.
In the 2018 bypoll, Pravin had won the Gorakhpur seat on an SP ticket, defeating BJP on its home turf for the first time since 1989. His win established Nishads as a powerful force in Gorakhpur. Nishads have emerged as free-wheeling transactional players in UP. “SP wanted us to contest on its party symbol while we sought a respectful adjustment of our party in the alliance and not a merger,” said Sarwan Nishad, younger son of the party’s founding president. To unite Nishads, a Rashtriya Nishad Ekta Parishad was constituted in January 2013. The organisation still exists. To mark a political presence, Nishad party was registered in August 2016, and made its debut in the UP elections in 2017 and contested 62 seats though it won only in Bhadohi. Going by Nishad party’s claim, they have a sizeable presence in 152 of the 403 assembly constituencies. Besides, they have significant numbers in 19 LS constituencies, among them Bhadohi, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Kushinagar, Ghosi, Deoria, Basti, Dumariyaganj, Salempur, Varanasi, Ballia and Sultanpur.
As part of the attempt to consolidate themselves, community members have stopped using old surnames and suffix ‘Nishad’ to their names.
Nishads are demanding inclusion among SCs for subcastes under four generic castes — Majhwar, Gond, Shilpkar and Turaha — to do away with the confusion.
UP has 153 sub-castes of Nishads. “Some sub-castes are in the OBC list, some in the list of denotified tribes and others in the SC list. We want a common status for all — of an SC,” said Jaswant Singh Nishad, who edits and prints an all-Nishad newspaper, Eklavya Manav Sandesh. They also justify the demand for SC status, read quota benefits, by citing that Nishads were enumerated as SCs in the 1961 Census.
The Noida jinx
1980s-2018, May
Subhash Mishra, Has Aditya Nath fallen to the Noida jinx?, June 1, 2018: The Times of India
Has the ‘Noida jinx’ started haunting UP CM Yogi Aditya Nath? He bravely ignored the popular notion — that a CM who visits Noida loses polls — by visiting the town, along with Greater Noida, in December last year, earning much praise. However, he has lost four polls in UP since December.
The ‘Noida jinx’ began during the Veer Bahadur Singh regime in the late 80s, when he was removed by the Congress brass as soon as he came back from a Noida trip. Since then, CMs have avoided going there. Rajnath Singh didn’t go there during his tenure. As CM, Mayawati visited the place for inaugurating a Metro service in 2011, and faced a crushing defeat in 2012. As if taking a cue, Akhilesh Yadav preferred to totally avoid Noida and Greater Noida when he was CM, inaugurating mega NCR projects from his Lucknow residence.
Other Backward Classes (OBCs)
1960s-2022
Shyamlal Yadav, March 5, 2022: The Indian Express
Since the late 1960s, communities that are now identified as Other Backward Classes (OBCs) have been an important factor in the politics of Uttar Pradesh. For the last 30 years, the BJP has worked to build a base among non-Yadav OBCs to take on the Samajwadi Party’s formidable Yadav-Muslim combine; in the weeks leading up to the Assembly elections, however, several non-Yadav OBC leaders broke from the BJP and joined the SP. On March 10, the choices made by OBC voters could determine who forms UP’s next government.
Numbers, reservation
The National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) lists 76 castes (using 156 surnames) from UP in the central list for 27% reservation. The Mandal Commission report, submitted in 1980 and implemented in 1994, said OBCs were 52% of India’s population. The report of the National Sample Survey Organisation’s (NSSO’s) 61st round, released in October 2006, however, put it at 41%.
In UP, a Social Justice Committee set up by then Chief Minister Rajnath Singh in 2001 estimated OBCs to be 43.13% (54.05% in rural areas). Among OBCs, the report estimated Yadavs to be 19.4%, Kurmis 7.46%, Kachhi-Kushwaha-Shakya-Maurya-Saini-Mali 6.69%, Lodhs 4.9%, Jats (who are OBC in UP) 3.6%, Kewat (Nishad) 4.33%, Shepherd-Pal-Baghel 4.43%, Kahar-Kashyap 3.31%, and Bhar-Rajbhar 2.44%.
There has been no caste census since 1931, so these numbers are only estimates. Political parties collect seat-wise information on castes from their workers on the ground.
A Commission for Backward Classes constituted in UP in October 1975 under the chairmanship of Chhedilal Sathi recommended 29.50% reservation for OBCs, with 17% of that going to the most backward communities.
Ram Naresh Yadav’s Janata Party government implemented 15% reservation in government jobs for OBCs in UP in 1977. In 1994, the SP-BSP government headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav increased it to 27%.
At the central level, the Kaka Kalelkar Commission, constituted in 1953, submitted its report in 1955. The B P Mandal Commission was set up in 1978. Leaders such as Ram Manohar Lohia raised their voice for the welfare of OBCs.
Charan Singh to Mulayam
The UP Assembly election of 1967 saw significant shifts in social equations. The Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS), precursor to the BJP, won 98 seats, riding the support from backward farming communities. OBC leaders and future CMs Kalyan Singh (BJS) and Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samyukta Socialist Party) entered the Assembly for the first time, and Jat leader Chaudhary Charan Singh became CM after defecting from the Congress.
In eastern UP, where there are no Jats, Charan Singh received support from communities such as Yadavs and Kurmis. A significant number of BJS MLAs in the 1967 Assembly were from these communities, but in the years after that, their bases shifted loyalty to Charan Singh, who remained their most widely accepted leader until his demise in 1987.
V P Singh, who broke from the Congress in the late 1980s, received support from OBC leaders Mulayam in UP, Lalu Prasad in Bihar, and Sharad Yadav from MP. The Jats of UP, Haryana, and Rajasthan too threw their weight behind him. His announcement during his Independence Day speech of 1990, on implementation of the Mandal Commission report, strengthened OBC consolidation further.
In UP, Mulayam, who had become CM in 1989, got the support of Muslims with his hard opposition to the BJP’s Hindutva, and of several non-Yadav OBC communities, and emerged as the pre-eminent leader of OBCs in the 1990s.
BJP’s Kalyan and Rajnath
The BJP mounted its own OBC face against Mulayam, and after the elections of 1991, Kalyan Singh, a Lodh Rajput, became CM. As Mulayam’s support base outside its Yadav-Muslim core started to fragment, Kalyan rallied several smaller OBC communities behind the BJP. It was around this time, as several communities started to assert their identities in the post-Mandal years, that ‘non-Yadav OBC’ entered the political lexicon of UP. Kalyan nurtured this constituency, and ensured their representation in party posts and in the distribution of election tickets.
Kalyan’s successor Ram Prakash Gupta (Nov 1999-Oct 2000) granted Jats OBC status in UP. Working to weaken Mulayam and BSP chief Mayawati, the government of Rajnath Singh, who succeeded Gupta, came up with the idea of “reservation within reservation” to divide OBCs and Dalits.
The Social Justice Committee constituted by Rajnath’s government in June 2001 submitted its report that August. Its purpose was seen to be to alienate Yadavs from other OBC castes, and Jatavs from other SC castes. A committee headed by Hukum Singh recommended that the 21% quota for Scheduled Castes should be split between Jatavs (10%) and the remaining 65 SC castes (11%). In the 27% OBC quota, the share of Yadavs should be kept to 5%, the committee recommended, with 9% going to eight other castes, and the rest to 70 other castes.
The plan was quashed by the Supreme Court, and in the elections of 2002, the BJP was reduced to 88 seats out of 403 in the Assembly.
OBC politics post 2002
The success of identity politics inspired several other leaders to seek recognition for themselves and their communities. Sonelal Patel, a Kurmi leader who was earlier with the BSP, had formed the Apna Dal in 1995. In 2002, he fielded 351 candidates including 59 Kurmis, and won three seats; all three MLAs, however, defected to the SP later.
In October 2002, another former BSP leader, Om Prakash Rajbhar, formed the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), with its base in the Rajbhar community. Several years later, in 2016, Sanjay Nishad formed the Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD), claiming support from the Nishad community.
After Sonelal Patel’s death, his daughters went their separate ways. The faction led by Anupriya Patel is in alliance with the BJP, the other faction, led by Pallavi Patel, is with the SP. Rajbhar is now with the SP alliance, while Nishad is with the BJP.
Modi-Yogi years
Ahead of the Lok Sabha polls of 2014, Narendra Modi focused strongly on social engineering. In UP, with the help of Kalyan Singh who had returned to the BJP, Modi and Amit Shah devised a strategy that would bring the party 73 out of 80 seats, with two more going to its ally Apna Dal.
The strategy paid off again in 2017, when Amit Shah camped in UP and Keshav Prasad Maurya was made president of the BJP’s state unit. The party won 312 seats, and its allies Apna Dal and SBSP (which was then with the BJP) won 9 and 4 respectively. The BJP’s sweep indicated that barring a few OBC castes, most others had backed the party.
Non-Yadav OBC leaders flocked to the BJP. Keshav Maurya was joined by Swami Prasad Maurya, who was once Mayawati’s trusted lieutenant; with Babu Singh Kushwaha having left already, the BSP lost a major part of its OBC base to the BJP. Nonia leader Dara Singh Chauhan came over. The BJP launched a campaign to brand the SP as a party that took care of only Yadavs and Muslims, a narrative that Mulayam’s then badly divided party failed to counter.
The SP and BSP joined hands for the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, but the BJP still won 62 seats, and the Apna Dal won two. The BJP had promised sub-categorisation of OBCs in 2014 and 2017, and a Commission headed by Justice G Rohini has been looking at the issue since October 2017. A separate committee at the state level under Justice Raghavendra Kumar has submitted its report to the state government.
Swami Prasad Maurya and Chauhan are no longer with the BJP. Every OBC leader that has left the BJP ahead of the 2022 elections has accused the Yogi Adityanath government of being unfair to these communities. On the other hand, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has reached out to non-Yadav OBCs with several election promises.
Sensitive seats
As in 2022
Manish Sahu , January 14, 2022: The Indian Express
The number of Assembly seats declared “sensitive” by the Uttar Pradesh Police this election has risen to 73. That is 35 more than the 2017 state elections, when 38 seats were declared “sensitive”.
Notably, a day after the election schedule was announced, UP Police had said that they have identified 95 Assembly segments as“sensitive” in the state. The number was revised down to 73 after taking into consideration recent incidents related to law and order and deployment of security forces, said a senior police officer.
Among seats declared “sensitive” this time is Kannauj Assembly constituency, which was in news recently after Central agencies conducted searches at the residences of three perfume traders and recovered a large tranche of unaccounted money.
The Assembly segments represented by controversial MLAs Mukhtar Ansari and Vijay Mishra – Mau Sadar and Gyanpur in Bhadohi district – have also been declared “sensitive”. Both Ansari and Mishra are currently lodged in jail. Police have also declared Allahabad (West) – known to be the stronghold of jailed former MLA Atiq Ahmed – “sensitive”.
“There are different criteria to select ‘sensitive’ seats. These include caste position, previous law and order history, and who are contesting the election. Heavy deployment of security forces in these seats ensure that elections are held smoothly,” Additional Director General (Law & Order) Prashant Kumar said.
Police have retained 32 Assembly segments from its 2017 list of “sensitive” seats, and dropped six – Mariyahu and Shahganj in Jaunpur district, Loni in Ghaziabad, Allahabad North in Prayagraj, Gunnaur in Sambhal, and Dibiyapur in Auraiya.
In the current list, Prayagraj district has the highest number of “sensitive” seats – eight of its 12 constituencies – followed by Ballia with five. Three constituencies each of Baghpat, Saharanpur, Siddharth Nagar, Bahraich, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar and Azamgarh districts have also been declared “sensitive”.
Among seats in the “sensitive” list this year are:
Rampur Maniharan, Saharanpur district
The Assembly constituency witnessed caste-related violence in 2017 that started after members of two communities clashed over a procession in memory of Rajput ruler Maharana Pratap at Shabbirpur, a Dalit-dominated area. A 35-year-old man, Sumit Rajput, was killed and 16 others were seriously injured in the violence. At least 25 houses were torched. Bhim Army, led by Chandrashekhar Azad, came to the limelight after the incident. In all, nine FIRs were lodged in connection with the clashes.
Mohammadabad, Ghazipur district
The area witnessed caste-related violence in June 2018. The clash was allegedly triggered by a quarrel between Nawali village head Vimla Singh’s son and the owners of a mobile shop, who belonged to the Dalit community, over pending dues.
Meerut & Firozabad
The two districts witnessed large-scale violence in 2019 during protests against the citizenship law (CAA) and the proposed National Register of Citizen (NRC). The violence had left 23 people dead and 538 others, including 455 policemen, injured across the state. Firozabad had reported seven deaths, and Meerut Sadar Assembly segment five. The violence broke out first in Lucknow on December 19 and spread to other districts: Varanasi, Rampur, Muzaffarnagar, Sambhal, Bijnor, Kanpur, Mau, Gorakhpur and Aligarh.
Lalitpur
The area hit the headlines after arrests of the district presidents of Samajwadi Party and BSP for alleged rape of a 17-year-old girl.
SP-BSP relations
1991-2019
See graphic:
SP-BSP relations, 1991-2019
1995: Guest house episode soured relations
April 20, 2019: The Times of India
From: April 20, 2019: The Times of India
When Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav shared the dais at Mainpuri, the BSP leader showed she had put behind an event that had scarred SP-BSP relations almost irreparably.
On June 1, 1995, Mulayam, then the chief minister, received a note from an IAS officer: Mayawati was about to pull the plug on his one-and-a-half-year-old government.
Mayawati, then BSP general secretary, was putting up at the State Guest House in Lucknow. On June 2, she was holding a meeting with her party MLAs. That’s when SP MLAs and workers descended on the guest house and went on the rampage.
The attack lasted barely an hour. SP netas, carrying firearms, barged into the room where Mayawati was holding her meeting. Those who tried to stop them were hit with rifle butts. A few of them were bundled into waiting vehicles and taken away.
Mayawati locked herself inside her room after being reportedly rescued by BJP leader Brahm Dutt Dwivedi, who was also staying in the guest house at the time. He stood guard outside her room till the attackers left.
Mayawati, badly shaken, did not venture out of her room for the next 24 hours. She stepped out the next day when more than 100 policemen lined up on either side of the corridor as she walked down to her car parked at the guest house gate.
How the SP-BSP alliance got stitched
LUCKNOW: One January day this year, Samajwadi Party Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Seth and BSP general secretary and MP Satish Mishra were returning to Lucknow from Delhi on the same flight. The chance meeting led to an informal discussion about a joint effort to win the Gorakhpur bypoll and how it would send a strong message across the nation.
The discussion was in a lighter vein, but when the two left the airport at Amausi, after landing in Lucknow, they agreed to take up the idea with their party leaders — Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. Given the history of bitterness between the two parties and their leaders over the last 25 years, Seth and Mishra were initially hesitant. They were unsure how their bosses would react. However, the response was positive: Seth and Mishra were told to explore the possibility. Seth approached Mayawati with Akhilesh’s message. A few days later, BSP announced its support for SP candidates in Gorakhpur and Phoolpur. Both won. Akhilesh described the wins as a “turning point in national politics”.
The alliance between the two parties then was a loose one and limited to the bypolls. But as the Rajya Sabha elections approached in March, Seth and Mishra once again discussed a deal to support each other to ensure victory of both parties’ nominees in the Rajya Sabha and UP legislative council. But the strategy didn’t work to plan as some MLAs, including Raja Bhaiyya crossed over to BJP from the SP camp, resulting in BSP’s Bhimrao Ambedkar losing.
“We were shattered by the way the BSP candidate lost despite our best effort. Some people had betrayed us,” recalled Seth. Mayawati, agitated at the defeat of the BSP nominee, hurriedly called a press conference. There was suspense in both the SP and BSP camps on whether she would call off the fledgling alliance. Mayawati, however, said, “This is a BJP conspiracy to split us. Henceforth, SP and BSP will remain united to defeat BJP in every election. The alliance will stay and remain alive.”
After that, Akhilesh and Mayawati spoke 11 times with each other in Lucknow and Delhi and also with Seth. The deal was finally sealed during a meeting in Delhi earlier this year between Akhilesh and Mayawati where the two finalised their seat-sharing formula. Akhilesh agreed to fight relatively tougher constituencies in urban areas.
Mayawati told Akhilesh she would campaign more in constituencies of the Yadav family to send a strong message to her cadre to support SP candidates. It was also Mayawati who mooted the idea of a joint rally with SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav at Mainpuri, saying the presence of the two leaders on one platform would leave no doubt about their intention to fight BJP unitedly. After Friday’s rally, Mayawati called Seth to greet him with a “chalo sab achchha ho gaya” (all’s well that ends well).
Parties’ performance
UP: 2009, 14; East UP: 1980-2014
The performance of all major political parties in UP elections, 2009, 14
From: She will pull the crowds, but can she get the votes?, February 6, 2019: The Times of India
See graphic:
The electoral performance of the Congress in East UP- 1980-2014;
The performance of all major political parties in UP elections, 2009, 14
Political alliances
SP, BSP, RLD: 1993-2017
From: Ashish Tripathi, 25 yrs on, SP-BSP alliance could again spell success, January 12, 2019: The Times of India
SP-BSP-RLD May See A 1993 Repeat
Exactly 25 years after Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram joined hands to stop the BJP juggernaut at the height of the Ayodhya movement, the SP patriarch’s son Akhilesh and the Dalit icon’s protégé Mayawati have cemented ties to stall Moditava, which pushed Opposition to the margins in 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly polls.
If the voting pattern remains the same as in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the SP-BSP ‘gathbandhan’ may cut BJP’s tally to half, a data-crunching of results by TOI shows.
However, had Congress been included in the alliance, the mahagatbandhan could have dominated twothird of 80 LS seats.
In 2014, BJP swept 71 seats and its ally Apna Dal won 2, whereas SP bagged five and Congress two. BSP drew a blank. Although simple mathematics shows that BJP and Apna Dal vote-share (43.63%) in 2014 was more than the combined SP-BSP share of 42.12%, a micro-analysis of every seat reveals SP and BSP together polled more votes than BJP in 41 constituencies. If RLD, now a probable ally, is included in the alliance, it touches 42 seats.
Political pundits, however, said election results cannot be predicted on the basis of math. The outcome largely depends on issues on which people vote. In 2014, there was strong anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA government and people voted for change and a stable government under one party.
In 2019, the major issue would be Modi’s performance. The success of alliance would depend on parties hold on their caste-based vote-banks and capacity to transfer these votes to partners in constituencies. “SP thrives largely on votes of Yadavs and Muslims, while Dalits are the base of BSP. Though the alliance will become the first choice of Muslims, many Yadavs who are loyal to SP but would not like to vote for BSP may instead go for BJP,” said political observer, Deepak Kabir.
Some analysts, however, pointed out that in 1993 assembly elections, when SP and BSP contested together, they could transfer votes to each other to some extent. The state then saw a four-cornered contest with the SP-BSP alliance and BJP getting almost equal number of seats. BJP won 177 seats and SP-BSP 176.
However, similar alliances like BSP-Congress and SPCongress failed to make any impact in 1996 and 2017. This could be the reason why the two regional parties are avoiding a tie-up with grand old party this time.
2019: SP-BSP, pact between sworn enemies
January 12, 2019: The Times of India
Call it political compulsion or an eye on maximum number of seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, the coming together of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party only proves the old saying— "in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies."
Once arch rivals, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) + on Saturday announced their tie-up in Uttar Pradesh for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, sharing 38 seats each and keeping the Congress out of the alliance.
The parties, however, said they would not field candidates in Amethi and Rae Bareli, represented by Congress + president Rahul Gandhi and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. They also left two seats, out of 80, for smaller allies.
The parties seem to have forgotten their two decade-old antagonism for a "political revolution" which they hope would "last long".
"I am moving ahead of the 1995 guest house incident in the interest of the country and to serve the people, who are upset with the BJP's 'anti-people' policies," BSP supremo Mayawati said at a press conference here which was also attended by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.
"The SP-BSP tie-up is a natural alliance. Yeh lamba chaleyga, aagey bhi chaleyga, Lok Sabha chunav ke baad, UP assembly mein bhi yeh sthayee chalega (This will last long, even beyond LS polls and in UP Assembly elections)," she said, adding it was a "political revolution".
In 1993, SP-BSP had formed an alliance to stop the BJP's winning spree after the Ram temple movement.
Then SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP founder Kanshi Ram had joined hands and succeeded in leaving a mark in the state politics by winning 167 assembly seats. The BSP had got 67 seats and SP 109.
The alliance, however, did not last and ended in 1995 after the infamous Meera Bai Marg guest house incident wherein SP workers misbehaved with Mayawati.
An unruly mob of SP workers had stormed into the Meerabai Guest House here where Mayawati was huddled in a meeting with her MLAs.
Mayawati's room was vandalised, she was abused and allegedly beaten up. When the BSP MLAs failed to protect her, BJP MLA Brahm Dutt Dwivedi took her out of the guest house to safety. It was then that the BSP joined hands with the BJP to form the government in the state.
The incident had left an indelible mark in the relationship between the two parties. It was said Kanshi Ram made numerous efforts to revive the coalition, but Mayawati held the fort in her opposition to a possible tie-up.
However, 23 years later, it seems Mayawati has moved on.
The BSP-SP came close during the parliamentary by-polls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur recently wherein the BSP supported SP candidates who succeeded in winning both the seats - Gorakhpur vacated by chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Phulpur by his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the SP had won five seats, while the BSP failed to win any seat.
In the 2017 assembly polls, SP and BSP got 22 per cent votes each.
Come to 2019, if both the parties continue to have a say in their traditional vote bank, the combine can create hurdles for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
In the politically-crucial Uttar Pradesh, there are about 22 per cent dalits, 45 per cent OBCs and 19 per cent Muslims, whose vote share will be decisive in the general elections this year.
"The SP-BSP alliance will certainly clear the dilemma of Muslim voters who are anti-BJP and with no division of their votes between SP and BSP, our alliance will get their votes in the major chunk," a senior SP leader said.
Commenting on how the new alliance, SP president Akhilesh Yadav said, "The path of Delhi's power traverses through Uttar Pradesh and our alliance will be able to stop the BJP for sure.
"The alliance with BSP was founded in my heart when the BJP conspired and got BSP candidate Bhim Rao Ambedkar defeated during the Rajya Sabha biennial polls. I had said that if I had to take two steps backward for the alliance, I will do it," he said, thanking Mayawati.
Although Akhilesh Yadav's estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav, who recently floated the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia), claimed that he would emerge as a "strong force" in the polls, Mayawati asked people "not to waste their vote on his (Shivpal's) party funded by the BJP".
"BJP's money will go down the drain as it is running Shivpal's party," she said.
Akhilesh, however, did not comment on Shivpal's claim.
Reserved seats
SC seats, 2004-2014
From: Pankaj Shah, Can Maya pass vote-bank test? It holds key to 8 seats, April 14, 2019: The Times of India
The BSP-SP-RLD alliance, and Mayawati in particular, has a lot at stake in the eight Lok Sabha seats that will go to polls in the second phase of the general election on April 18.
That’s because it will be mainly a battle for Dalit votes, Mayawati’s traditional support base. Of the eight seats, four are reserved for SCs. In 2014, BJP won all eight, including the reserved ones — Nagina, Aligarh, Hathras and Agra.
This time, however, backed by the combined forces of the gathbandhan, Mayawati has fielded candidates in six of the eight seats, including Nagina, Bulandshahr and Agra.
Observers foresee a tough fight between BJP and BSP.SP has fielded just one candidate, Ramji Lal Suman in Hathras, in this phase and will bank on transfer of Dalit votes from BSP. The eight seats have a significant population of Dalits, Jats, Gujjars and Muslims. Dalits and Muslim comprise between 40% and 50% of the population in Nagina, Amroha, Aligarh and Agra. Bulandshahr, Hathras, Mathura and Fatehpur have a substantial Jat and Gujjar. population In 2014, BJP banked heavily on the consolidation of Dalits, Jats and Gujjars, especially after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. This time, the communal sentiment has waned despite CM Yogi Adityanath raking up the riots during campaigning. The gathbandhan has, meanwhile, been consolidating its Dalit and Muslim vote banks to stop the saffron juggernaut. Aware that it faces a formidable rival this time, BJP has replaced two MPs in reserved seats.
The second phase will also show how non-Dalit votes transfer to gathbandhan partners SP and BSP. “The transfer of non-Dalit votes is a determining factor in reserved seats,” said Badri Narayan of Govind Vallabh Pant Institute of Social Sciences.
The battle will be intense between BJP and BSP on some of the non-reserved seats, including Amroha and Aligarh, which has a significant Muslim population.
Sugarcane belt
2009-17
From: Sandeep Rai & Keshav Agrawal, Parties struggle to crack code in UP’s bitter sugarcane belt, March 26, 2019: The Times of India
Farmers Call For NOTA In Region BJP Swept Twice
When cane season was at its peak, Mayank Tiwari, who works with an insurance company in Ahmedabad, received a message from his brother about a crisis on the family’s sugarcane farms in UP’s Kheri district. The mill to which they were selling cane had refused to buy any more of it. It was a financial blow the family, which is yet to receive Rs 5 lakh in previous dues, could not absorb.
When Mayank interceded on his brother’s behalf, the mill’s general manager explained why he was helpless: Support price for cane was high, supply abundant, dues to farmers mounting, and the retail price of sugar stagnating for years.
The accumulated dues of cane growers in the sugarcane belt of western UP — which has 11 Lok Sabha seats, some of which go to polls in the first phase on April 11 — is more than Rs 9,600 crore. In the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections, BJP swept the region because of the consolidation of farmers across caste line. But this time, that polarisation looks unlikely. Farmer leaders are campaigning for NOTA; what this disillusionment could eventually lead to is a low turnout.
Naveen Pradhan, a farmer in Meerut’s Gagsona, says, “Governments change, but our problem remains the same. Samajwadi Party increased the minimum support price of cane by only Rs 10 in five years. The BJP government had promised full payment within 14 days of cane delivery to the mills but it has not happened.”
The All India Kisan Sangharsh Coordination Committee (AIKSCC), an umbrella organisation of 198 farmers’ unions from across the country, has urged farmers to vote NOTA. AIKSCC president VM Singh says while the state government had failed to get a high court order to clear farmers’ dues implemented, the opposition hadn’t shown interest either. “Rahul Gandhi and many opposition leaders attended the farmers’ rally in New Delhi in November 2018. But when we asked them to make a commitment that addressing farmers’ problems would be the central theme of their governance if they came to power, they refused to do so,” says Singh, adding UP has 34.5 lakh families of cane growers and another 18.6 lakh families that use their cane to make jaggery or molasses. “These farmer families comprise around 2 crore voters in the state,” says Singh.
A Rajya Sabha member from Tamil Nadu and eminent farmer leader Ayya Kannu confirmed his support to the call. “I am not only urging farmers in my state to opt for NOTA, but will also field 110 prominent farmers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi (in Varanasi),” he said. Other farmer leaders like JK Patel from Gujarat, Jagmohan Singh from Punjab and Rajinder Arya from Haryana have supported the NOTA call.
Sumit Malik, a farmer leader in Muzaffarnagar, says the NOTA call was receiving an overwhelming response because dues not being paid and produce not selling was a problem affecting all. Rajinder Singh of Raipur Berisal village in Bijnor adds, “BJP made huge promises to us during the election campaign in 2014. But what has changed?”
Historically, the cane belt have always risen above communal lines to vote. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections, however, saw a communal divide for the first time, when — as political observers described — “farmers voted like Hindus” in the wake of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.
Supply of electricity before and after elections
2017
Power play ahead of any election is nothing new. Residents of any power-starved state will tell you that the supply situation improves drastically -sometimes even to 24x7 electricity -before polling, only to relapse into periods of long blackouts once voting is over.
Latest ground data collected by Prayas, a Pune-based independent NGO, indicates that the state government may have been making tall claims and the reality is quite different. Prayas collects power supply data from specific towns across the country.
A look at the Prayas data on power supply in the week before and after voting in areas covered in the first two phases of assembly polls clearly shows a sharp rise in the duration of blackouts after polls.Data shows even Varanasi is not without blackouts, with some areas such as Sundarpur, Pandeypur, Sarang Talab and Shivpur experiencing almost 8-10 hours of outage for the last three months.
“The Uttar Pradesh government has been caught on several fronts. The state utili ty simply stopped releasing data on power cuts. But it is clear that the claims of regular power supply were wrong.The Prime Minister's comments on bias in development and selective power supply have proved to be correct,“ said urban development minister Venkaiah Naidu.
Power ministry officials said data provided by the state government in August 2016 showed UP had more than twice the number of power cuts and seven times longer outages compared to the national average.
With such a dismal record, no wonder since then, power ministry officials said, the state government stopped sharing data data for the Centre's Urja app that provides countrywide supply position in real time.
“While supply outages go on, the Uttar Pradesh government neither tells the truth nor supplies power,“ power minister Piyush Goyal posted on Facebook.
Though UP was among the first lot of states to sign up for the Centre's turnaround scheme for discoms, it is yet to sign the `Power for All' document which creates a roadmap and gives a sort of political and financial commitment to supply electricity to all consumers. It is estimated that 1.6 crore out of the three crore rural households in the state don't have electricity connections. Ministry officials claimed the state government has failed to sign the `Power for All' document in spite of five reminders in 13 months and several follow-up meetings with state government officials in between.
The net result is long blackouts. According to data collected by Prayas, Shivpur area in Varanasi in logged power cuts of 248 hours in the period between January 19 to February 19, averaging approximately eight hours of outage daily .
Voting patterns, trends
2022
From: March 23, 2022: The Times of India
See graphic:
Voting patterns, trends in UP assembly elections, 2022
B
YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS
1951-67
Congress dominance
In the first Assembly elections in 1951, there were 346 seats, including 83 double-member seats. The Congress won 388, and Pandit Govind Ballabh Pant, already serving as Chief Minister, continued. In December 1954, he was succeeded by Varanasi-based Sanskrit scholar Doctor Sampurnanand, who remained CM after the Congress won again in 1957. In 1960, following issues with Kamalapati Tripathi, Sampurnanand had to make way for Chandra Bhanu Gupta. Sucheta Kripalani replaced Gupta in 1963, becoming UP’s first woman CM.
1964: judiciary vs. legislature/ Keshav Singh case
Written by Chakshu Roy, January 14, 2023: The Indian Express
In the history of Indian democracy, the constitutional crisis in Uttar Pradesh in 1964 is one of the earliest examples of a confrontation between the judiciary and the legislature that led to the “derailment” of the “governance apple cart”.
In the history of Indian democracy, the constitutional crisis in Uttar Pradesh in 1964 is one of the earliest examples of a confrontation between the judiciary and the legislature that led to the “derailment” of the “governance apple cart”.
It started with Keshav Singh, a political worker from Gorakhpur, and two of his colleagues publishing a pamphlet in which they made corruption allegations against a Congress MLA. They then distributed the leaflet in and around the UP Legislative Assembly in Lucknow. The legislator complained to Madan Mohan Verma, the Assembly Speaker, that the pamphlet breached his rights and privileges as a legislator. The Speaker then referred the matter to the privileges committee, which recommended that the House reprimand Keshav Singh and his associates.
While his colleagues came to the Legislative Assembly and apologised, Keshav Singh expressed his inability to reach the legislature for lack of funds. As a result, the Assembly issued warrants for Singh’s arrest. But he made quite a scene, first lying down on the platform at Lucknow railway station and then resisting the marshals’ attempts to bring him to the bar of the House. That was not all: when he was carried into the Assembly, he turned his back on Speaker Verma and refused to identify himself. Singh also exacerbated the matter by writing to the Speaker, stating that the Assembly acted tyrannically by issuing a warrant for his arrest.
The issue escalated from breach of privilege of an MLA to contempt of the UP Legislative Assembly. The Constitution provides the legislature exclusive jurisdiction to deal with contempt and breach of privilege. Therefore, the UP Assembly passed a resolution sending Keshav Singh to Lucknow jail for seven days. But the matter did not end there. Five days passed without any developments, and on the sixth, a lawyer petitioned the Allahabad High Court for Keshav Singh’s release on bail.
The petition was listed before a division bench of Justice Mirza Nasir Ullah Beg and Justice Gursaran Das Sahgal. Justice Beg, who studied law at Oxford, had adorned the bench for over a decade. Justice Sahgal, on the other hand, was a newcomer, and had been appointed an additional judge less than a year earlier. After lunch, the two judges heard the case and ordered Keshav Singh’s release. The order was mechanical as just a few years ago, the Supreme Court had ruled that a legislature’s privilege trumped fundamental rights.
The UP Assembly did not appreciate the judiciary’s interference in its affairs. Two days after the High Court order, the Assembly discussed the matter at length. It passed a resolution that Justice Beg and Sahgal had committed contempt of the House and be brought before it. Not everyone was in favour of the resolution —126 MLAs voted for and 16 against it. One of them who voted against the resolution was Kamlapati Tripathi, a senior government minister, and later UP CM. It was a first for the country, where the legislature and the judiciary were on a collision course. The administration was in a quandary: arresting the judges would result in contempt of the court, and not doing so would be contempt of the legislature.
The ball was now in the judiciary’s court. Justice Beg and Sahgal approached the High Court stating that the Assembly had committed contempt of the court by summoning them. The High Court upped the ante by deciding that a bench of 28 judges would hear the petition. The idea was that the legislature could not arrest all 28 judges for contempt.
With the conflict getting out of hand, there was a meeting of Chief Minister Sucheta Kriplani, the High Court Chief Justice, the law minister and the advocate general of UP. The Assembly then softened its stance.
Meanwhile, the Union government headed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru stepped in. It recommended to President Dr Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan that he refer the matter to the Supreme Court for its opinion. This action temporarily diffused the situation. A few months later, the apex court, in a 4:1 judgement, decided that the high court judges were correct in ordering the release of Keshav Singh.
The dissenting Supreme Court judge summed up the entire episode stating that the “… result of the order of the Hon’ble Judges was to interfere with a perfectly legitimate action of the Assembly in a case where interference was not justifiable and was certainly avoidable. On the other hand, the Assembly could have also avoided the crisis by practising restraint and not starting proceedings against the Judges at once.”
This episode is a case study about respect for institutional boundaries something the judiciary and the legislature should keep in mind while upholding the Constitution.
As for Keshav Singh, the court sent him back to jail for the remaining one day as ordered by the Assembly.
1967-77
Non-Congress phase
In the 1967 elections, the Congress won 199 seats, short of a majority, while the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) won 98. Jat leader Chaudhary Charan Singh broke with the Congress to form the Bhartiya Kranti Dal (BKD). With the help of socialist leaders Ram Manohar Lohia and Raj Narain, and BJS’s Nanaji Deshmukh, Charan Singh in April 1967 was sworn in as CM as the head of the Samyukta Vidhayak Dal (SVD), a coalition of different parties ranging from CPI(M) on the left to BJS on the right. He faced many problems. as some parties withdrew from the coalition. In February 1968, he had to resign. After a year of President’s Rule, the Congress returned to power in 1969, and Chandra Bhanu Gupta was back as as CM. Within a year, the Congress split, and Gupta had to resign. Charan Singh returned in February 1970 as CM, this time with the help of Indira Gandhi’s Congress (R).
Within months, the CM faced problems. Charan Singh asked for the resignation of 14 ministers of the Congress (R) who, led by Kamlapati Tripathi, refused. When Charan Singh recommended their dismissal, Governor B Gopala Reddy instead asked him to resign. After President’s Rule, elections were held, and Tribhuvan Narain Singh was sworn in at the head of a SVD government put together by Congress (O) leaders. But months later, he lost his Assembly by-election and had to resign. Kamlapati Tripathi took over and remained CM until June 1973, when a revolt by the Provincial Armed Constabulary forced him out. After a brief phase of President’s Rule, Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna became CM in November 1973. He resigned in November 1975 following differences with Sanjay Gandhi during the Emergency, and was replaced with N D Tiwari.
1977-80
Janata Party years
The Janata Party, formed with the merger of several parties to fight the Congress, won the 1977 Lok Sabha elections. PM Morarji Desai’s government sacked Congress state governments, including N D Tiwari’s in UP. In June 1977, Janata Party won 352 of the 425 seats, but a fight for the chief ministership broke out. In the absence of a consensus, the MLAs voted for Ram Naresh Yadav, who became CM. In the wake of an incident of police atrocities in Narayanpur (Deoria), the CM resigned in February 1979 and was succeeded by Benarsi Das. In February 1980, after coming back as PM, Indira Gandhi sacked the government in UP.
1980-89
V P Singh & Tiwari
The Congress came to power in 1980, and V P Singh became CM. His regime was marked by allegations of fake police encounters and major law and order incidents, including the Behmai massacre of 1981. After dacoits in 1982 killed his brother, Justice Chandrashekhar Pratap Singh of Allahabad High Court, Singh resigned, and was replaced with Shripati Mishra, who was replaced with N D Tiwari in August 1984. Tiwari led the Congress to victory in the next elections, but Rajiv Gandhi replaced him with Vir Bahadur Singh in 1985, only to replace him with Tiwari again in 1988.
1989
Mulayam begins
The 1989 polls established Mulayam as a strong leader, with the Janata Dal choosing him as CM over Ajit Singh. He formed his government with outside support from BJP, which withdrew support to both the V P Singh-led central government and Mulayam’s UP government after Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav stopped L K Advani’s Ram Rath Yatra in October 1990 and arrested him. Mulayam saved his government with the help of the Congress. His government, along with that of PM Chandra Shekhar at the Centre, fell after the Congress withdrew support, but Mulayam has since emerged the UP’s most dominant non-Congress, non-BJP leader.
1991
Ram Mandir
To counter ‘Mandal’ forces, the BJP in 1991 projected Kalyan Singh, an OBC Lodh, as its CM face. The party won 221 seats in the 425-member house. But his government was sacked along with three other BJP governments after the Babri Masjid was demolished on December 6, 1992. Kalyan became CM again in 1997, but had to resign due to differences with then PM A B Vajpayee.
1993
Mayawati’s first stint
Mulayam, who had formed his earlier government (1989-91) with the help of BJP and then taken Congress’s support when the BJP had withdrawn support, entered into a partnership with the BSP in 1993. The SP and BSP won 109 and 67 seats respectively. But the BSP walked out of the government in May 1995, reducing it to a minority. That resulted in the so-called “guesthouse incident”, in which several BSP legislators including Mayawati were reportedly assaulted by SP musclemen. The BJP pledged to support BSP if Mayawati staked claim, and she took oath as UP’s first Dalit CM.
1996-2003
Short-duration CMs
In the 1996 elections, the BJP won 174 seats, short of a majority, and President’s Rule was imposed. In April 1997, the BJP and the BSP (67 MLAs) agreed to rotate CMs every six months. Mayawati had the first six months, and made way for Kalyan Singh, but soon withdrew support. The BJP responded by breaking the BSP and the Congress. New groups called Janatantrik BSP (headed by Chaudhary Narendra Singh) and Loktantrik Congress (led by Naresh Agrawal) lent support to the BJP and joined the government. On February 21, 1998, Governor Romesh Bhandari dismissed the government, and swore in Jagdambika Pal of the Congress. Kalyan Singh challenged it in Allahabad High Court, on whose directions he was sworn in as CM on February 23.
1999-2002
Kalyan and Rajnath
Under CM Kalyan Singh’s watch, the BJP in 1998 won 58 out of UP’s then 85 Lok Sabha seats. But in 1999, the tally fell to 29. Amid lobbying against him, Kalyan Singh refused to resign to make way for Rajnath Singh. The BJP elevated octogenarian Ram Prakash Gupta to the CM’s chair; his government granted OBC status to Jats in UP. As the Kalyan Singh-Kalraj Mishra leadership lost its hold, Kalyan left the BJP, while Gupta too fell out of favour. Rajnath became CM in October 2000. In his 18 months as CM, he appointed the Samajik Nyay Samiti, headed by the late Hukum Singh, which held that Jats were more backward than Yadavs in the state. Those efforts were quashed by the Supreme Court. In 2002, the BJP finished in third place with just 88 seats, and Rajnath Singh returned to Delhi.
2002
Mulayam’s return
Following a spell of President’s Rule from March to May 2002, Mayawati became Chief Minister for the third time after the BJP extended support to the BSP. But some BJP leaders started campaigning against the alliance, and Mayawati resigned in August 2003. Mulayam was sworn in with the support of BSP dissidents, and ran the government until 2007. While the NDA lost power in 2004 at the Centre, the SP got 39 Lok Sabha seats. Mulayam was known to be under constant pressure from successive governments at the Centre on account of a CBI preliminary enquiry on a complaint against his family.
2007
Mayawati’s comeback
Mayawati’s fourth stint as Chief Minister was historic because she won the first single-party majority since 1991. Her social engineering included Brahmins, whom her mentor Kanshi Ram had opposed, and the Dalit-Brahmin combination brought her 206 seats. Mayawati became the first CM of UP to complete a full five-year tenure (2007-12). She and her aide Satish Mishra are trying the same caste-based formula in 2022.
2012
Akhilesh’s anointment
Under Mulayam Singh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party (SP) had earned the reputation of being a party of musclemen. Akhilesh, his engineer son, prevented the entry of some criminals in the SP. That, and his promises of free laptops and dole for unemployed youth, worked in his favour. In an election in which the BJP brought Uma Bharti to contest the Charkhari seat, word emerged that Mulayam would make his son the CM. The SP won 224 seats, and Akhilesh was sworn in as the youngest CM of the state at age 38.
Akhilesh’s regime was marked by internal problems. Akhilesh was also seen as reducing himself to a leader of Yadavs, and a large section of Muslims. He hesitated to speak on reservation and other issues that are key to his party’s support base, and the BJP spread the message that a number of candidates of only his caste were being selected through the state Public Service Commission. He seized leadership of his party, sidelining his uncles, but lost the 2017 elections he once thought would be a cakewalk.
2017
Yogi’s emergence
The 2017 elections marked the return of the BJP — which swept the state with 312 seats, not counting its allies’ tallies — and the emergence of Yogi Adityanath. The head of Goraksh Peeth in Gorakhpur, Adityanath was a Lok Sabha MP when the BJP decided to install him as Chief Minister. The BJP had fought the election without projecting a CM candidate. Then MP Keshav Prasad Maurya, who had come to BJP from Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP), was the state party president. Adityanath’s nomination surprised many in the party. While the R S S and state BJP general secretary (organisation) Sunil Bansal are known to have influenced his government’s decisions, Adityanath has managed to create a perception that his potential challengers within the party in UP are now on the back foot. Today, his supporters see a bigger role for him at the Centre in coming years.
With 80 seats out of the 543 in Lok Sabha, 403 in the Assembly, and 31 of the 245 in Rajya Sabha, besides a 100-member Legislative Council, Uttar Pradesh with its over 15 crore voters carries more weight than any other state in the country’s politics. Yogi Adityanath, who took oath as Chief Minister on March 19, 2017, will be the third (after Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati) to complete their five-year tenure.
Of the 403 Assembly seats, 9 are [in Jan 2022] vacant; out of the effective membership of 394, the BJP has 303, the SP 49, the BSP 15 and the Congress 7.
2017, Assembly elections
BSP loses all seats won in 2012, led in 2014
BSP failed to bag any seat it won in 2012 and led in 2014, March 13, 2017: The Times of India
There is one startling statistic that illustrates the existential crisis facing BSP in UP -there is not one seat in the entire state where the party won in 2012, led in 2014 and won again in 2017. Considering the party won 80 seats in the last assembly polls when it was on a downhill slope, you would expect most of the 19 it won this time would overlap with that list, but there are just three seats from the northern part of Poorvanchal that it managed to retain.
There is just one seat where BSP won in last assembly polls and led in 2014 and another where it led in the Lok Sabha polls and won this time. Both of these are in Sitapur district.
The story of Congress is not different. Barring Rampur Karkhana in Pratapgarh district, there is no seat it won or led in all three polls. There is just one other seat that it won last time that it has now retained -Tamkuhi Raj in Kushinagar district. There are two seats in Amethi district -Tiloi and Jagdishpur -where Congress won in 2012 and led in the LS polls. Six of the seven it now won were those in which it had led in 2014, including two from Rae Bareli district.
Contrast this with BJP , which can count 40 seats where it won in 2012 and now and led during the 2014 polls. Considering it won only 47 seats in 2012, it says something about its ability to hold on to what it won. Also important is that these 40 seats came from across the state, 14 from Poorvanchal, nine from the West, seven each from central UP and Bundelkhand and three from Bundelkhand. Incidentally , eight of these 40 spread acroos Bareilly , Shahjahanpur, Bijnor, Meerut, Bahraich and Firozabad have substantial Muslim populations.
SP too seems to have a stronger ability to hold on to seats than BSP . There were 18 seats where it won or led in all three polls. Not one of these 18 was in the extreme western part or Bundelkhand region, or even from the southern part of Poorvanchal. Seven of them were from the Rohilkhand belt and another seven from central UP , the rest from the Azamgarh-Ballia belt. Only six of the 18 were seats with Muslim populations of over 25%.
Fewer MLAs with criminal cases
Clean-UP: Fewer MLAs with criminal cases now, March 13, 2017: The Times of India
The new UP assembly will comprise elected representatives with a cleaner background. According to an Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) report, the number of MLAs with criminal cases has decreased from 189 in 2012 to 143 this time. However, the number of MLAs with serious criminal charges has increased.
As many as 114 of the 143 MLAs facing criminal charges are from BJP. This accounts for 37% of the total MLAs of the party (312). Of the rest, 14 MLAs of SP, five of BSP, one of Congress and three independents have criminal cases registered against them. The number of MLAs with serious criminal cases, however, has increased from 98 in 2012 to 107 this time. As many as 83 MLAs of BJP face charges of serious crimes, according to the report. This accounts for 27% of the total BJP MLAs. Likewise, 11 (24%) are from SP, 4 (21%) from BSP and one (14%) from Congress.
The number of crorepati MLAs, too, has risen from 67% in 2012 to 80% in 2017. Of the total 403 MLAs, 61 have assets worth Rs 10 crore and above. Shah Alam Urf Guddu Jamali of BSP, who won from Mubarakpur in Azamgarh, tops the crorepati chart with Rs 118 cr. He is followed by another BSP MLA Vinay Shankar Tiwari (Chil lupar), who has assets worth Rs 67 crore. BJP MLA Rani Pakshalika Singh (Bah) has assets worth 58 crore.
MLAs with lowest assets include two from BJP and one from Congress. BJP MLA from Belthara Road, Dhananjay , has assets worth Rs 3 lakh, while another BJP MLA from Rath, Manisha, owns assets worth Rs 6 lakh.Congress MLA Ajay Kumar from Tamkuhi Raj, too, has assets worth Rs 3 lakhs only.Half of the total 403 MLAs are in the age bracket of 25 to 50 years.
A record 38 women MLAs
Deepak Lavania, A record 38 women in UP assembly, March 13, 2017: The Times of India
When the 17th Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly convenes, there will be a record 38 women MLAs in attendance, the highest since Independence. The stellar result came despite political parties giving tickets to only 96 women candidates.
BJP gave tickets to 43 women, the highest among all the parties. Of these, 32 won.From BSP and Congress, two women won, while one each from the Samajwadi Party and Apna Dal were also elected. According to records available with the Election Commission, in the first UP assembly election after Independence, held in 1952, 20 women were elected.
The strength of women in the assembly has fluctuated in the elections ever since. The next major milestone was in 1985, when 31 women were elected. However, in 1989, the number fell to 18, while only 10 women were elected in 1991.
In 1993, 14 women MLAs were elected, a number which steadily increased to 20 in 1996 and 26 in 2002. In 2007, however, the number fell to a mere three women MLAs, but in 2012 a record 35 were elected.In 2017, this number has gone up even further, in what is a welcome sign. Like previous elections, political parties gave only a few tickets to women candidates. Out of 403 constituencies in the state in which the party contested, BSP fielded only 20 women candidates. In 2012, the party had awarded 33 tickets to women. In the 2017 elections, the SPCongress alliance gave tickets to 33 women, of which SP had 22 and Congress had 11 candidates. In 2012, when SP had fielded 34 women candidates, 22 had won.
In the 2012 elections too BJP had given the highest number of tickets among all the parties to women. However, of the 42 women candidates, only 7 had won. This time, despite only one more women candidate from the fray , BJP's women candidates also benefited from the massive mandate and 32 were elected with comfortable margins.
Yogi govt halves medical education budget
PankajShah, Yogi govt slashed medical education budget by 50%, August 17, 2017: The Times of India
See graphic:
UP medical education budgetary allocation, 2012-18
As the death of 23 children in a single day in Gorakhpur's Baba Raghav Das Medical College (BRDMC) grabs national headlines, a sharp cut by the Aditya Nath Yogi government in the budgetary allocation for medical education this year is raising questions. That's because this is the head under which the BRDMC, like other staterun colleges, receives funds. The budgetary allocation for 14 such medical colleges and their associated teaching hospitals has been pared to less than half from Rs 2,344 crore in 2016-17 to Rs 1,148 crore for 2017-18. The allocation for BRDMC followed the pattern, plunging from Rs 15.9 crore in 2016-17 to Rs 7.8 crore for 2017-18. More specifically , its allocation for machines equipment was slashed from Rs 3 crore to just Rs 75 lakh.
The budgetary allocation fell across all medical colleges. For example, the medical colleges in Kanpur and Allahabad saw their allocations come down from Rs 15.9 crore each to Rs 3.3 crore and Rs 4.2 crore, respectively .
The government has focused more on converting hospitals into medical colleges, for which the budgetary allocation has been raised from Rs 66.5 crore to Rs 515 crore.The Akhilesh Yadav government had been allocating higher funds for revamping existing medical colleges and hospitals, besides proposing new medical colleges like the ones in Jaunpur and Bijnor. A look at the allocations for the medical education department over the last few years (see graphic) shows a steady increase between 2012-13 and 2014-15, just before the Lok Sabha elections. This was also the time the previous government proposed setting up of a 500-bed paediat ric institute in BRDMC. After the LS elections, the allocation for the department in 2015-16 fell drastically but rose again in the next year when assembly elections were due.
When contacted, medical education minister Ashutosh Tandon said the cut in the funds for medical colleges would be compensated in the supplementary budget which is expected to be tabled later this year. “For the time being, the department has enough funds to carry out essential services in the state medical colleges,“ he told TOI. Sources in CM office said the state government was planning to examine funds spent on medical education projects in past years. “This is likely after chief secretary Rajive Kumar submits inquiry report on cause of death of children and also the reason for oxygen supply shortage,“ a senior official told
2018
Entente cordiale between SP, BSP
From: Pervez IqbalSiddiqui, Six-day talks brokered truce between SP & BSP, March 5, 2018: The Times of India
BSP’s decision to support Samajwadi Party candidates in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls may have fallen short of the two parties announcing a formal alliance for the 2019 elections, but it has brought an end to the 23-year enmity between the two dominant parties in UP.
The decision of coming together is a result of six days of hectic parleys between two parties, involving not only the top leadership but workers at the grassroots.
“It started on February 27 when SP MP Ram Gopal Yadav, party’s key strategist, took up the issue with BSP national general secretary Satish Chandra Misra,” said a senior SP leader on Sunday. The two sides discussed the possibilities of a tie-up. After a “go-ahead” from BSP chief Mayawati and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, the next round of talks focused on the modalities of support in detail.
In the second round of talks, the two sides agreed to help each other in the upcoming Rajya Sabha and legislative council polls. It was decided that while SP would help BSP to secure a seat in the Rajya Sabha, the latter would reciprocate with a similar bonhomie in the elections to the legislative council to be held in quick succession.
With Akhilesh having publically declared his willingness to join hands with BSP since 2017 UP polls, the ball was in Mayawati’s court to take a call on any type of tie-up with SP. In the BSP camp, the issue came up during Mayawati’s meeting with the party’s regional coordinators on March 1 where she asked them to take feedback from cadres at the ground level about a possible association with the SP.
Akhilesh deputed his Man Friday, MLC Udaiveer Singh, to get in touch with party workers at the ground level to feel get a sense of the possible coming together.
The exercise that started on Thursday evening, saw several meetings between the two sides in Gorakhpur and Phulpur that continued till Saturday evening. It was only after a positive feedback from the ground level that Mayawati asked her party coordinators to announce support to SP.
Gorakhpur, Phulpur by- elections
Not just maths, chemistry too, March 15, 2018: The Times of India
Votes cast in the 2014 elections for parliamentary seats in Araria, Bhabua and Jehanabad
From: March 15, 2018: The Times of India
See graphic:
Votes cast in the 2014 and 2018 elections for parliamentary seats, and 2017 elections for assembly seats in Gorakhpur, Phulpur.
Votes cast in the 2014 elections for parliamentary seats in Araria, Bhabua and Jehanabad
NDA Falls Way Short Of 2014 Numbers
The results in Gorakhpur and Phulpur cannot be explained by arithmetic alone because BJP had polled way more than SP and BSP put together in both these seats in 2014. In Phulpur, it had polled just over 5 lakh votes, while SP and BSP between them had got a little under 3.6 lakh votes. In Gorakhpur, BJP got almost 5.4 lakh votes, while the combined SP-BSP tally was just over 4 lakh.
Thus, BJP should have won comfortably in both seats, by about 1.4 lakh vote margins. Instead, it lost by almost 59,500 votes in Phulpur and nearly 22,000 in Gorakhpur. Clearly there was more than arithmetic at work here.
Another explanation given is that the low turnouts in the bypolls, particularly in urban areas, were primarily because BJP supporters didn’t come out in large numbers to vote, either due to bad candidate selection or for other reasons. This too cannot fully explain the outcome.
Low turnout might explain why BJP’s votes came down to 4.3 lakh in Gorakhpur and 2.8 lakh in Phulpur, but not how the combined SPBSP votes went up by almost 54,000 in Gorakhpur when the total votes polled fell by over a lakh. Clearly, both arithmetic and chemistry were at work. In any case, even supporters staying home in such large numbers instead of voting indicates resentment against the party and has the same effect as a swing against it.
In Bihar, too, data suggests arithmetic didn’t decide the polls. In 2014, BJP had polled 2.6 lakh votes in Araria and JD(U) 2.2 lakh. Their combined tally was thus 4.8 lakh, enough to beat the RJD’s tally of 4.1 lakh by about 75,000 votes. Yet, RJD retained the seat by a comfortable margin of nearly 62,000 votes. Again, this suggests a swing away from NDA.
In the Jehanabad assembly seat, too, RJD defied the arithmetic to win comfortably. Comparison with the 2015 assembly elections is not possible in this case, since the alliances have completely changed. A comparison with 2014, however, shows that BJP ally RLSP got over 62,000 and JD(U) nearly 17,000, which should have been enough to give the NDA a margin of almost 23,000 since RJD had got only about 56,000 votes. Instead, RJD has won by 35,000.
In Bhabua, the arithmetic based on the 2014 results would have suggested a win for BJP by about 39,500 votes. This is the only case where the outcome matches what the arithmetic would predict even if the margin is a little lower than expected.
Samajwadi- BSP relations
From: Subodh Ghildiyal, Samajwadis rediscover ‘mulayam’ touch under Akhilesh, March 15, 2018: The Times of India
A trained wrestler grounded in Chambal’s rough ways, Mulayam Singh Yadav always surprised with his flexibility, more a gymnast’s trait. He never made irreconcilable foes.
His son and successor Akhilesh Yadav, who wrested the party from Mulayam a year ago, proved on Wednesday he is a step ahead of his father.
With victories in saffron bastions of Gorakhpur and Phulpur, the CM’s and deputy CM’s seats, the Yadav neta established that not only has SP not lost its resilience but has managed the near-impossible — an alliance with BSP. This may well have happened on the belated realisation that his gamble with Congress in the UP polls was a bad idea.
The newfound alliance promises to bring the curtain down on the bitterness sparked by the ‘state guesthouse incident’ on Mulayam’s watch in 1995 — an assault on BSP chief Mayawati by Samajwadi goons. The chasm was too wide to bridge, and personalised UP’s political rivalry on the lines of Tamil Nadu’s Karunanidhi vs Jayalalithaa.
The Dalit and Yadav outfits did, however, join hands in the wake of the Babri Masjid demolition to quell communal polarisation that eventually led to the rise of BJP. For years post-1995, BSP toed the line with BJP while Mulayam kept unofficial lines open with saffron netas in the state and at the Centre. That the two sworn foes could patch up was never thought feasible, and that helped Congress play one against the other to secure support from both in UPA, while BJP benefited from a division of votes to sweep multi-polar contests in 2014 and 2017.
But within a year of Akhilesh displacing Mulayam, Mayawati surprised all by announcing support for her arch rival on the eve of the bypolls. The alliance may well have been forced by the existential threat to SP and BSP by BJP, but events may not have taken this turn under Mulayam.
The big question is will the alliance survive? The SP-BSP combo could return UP to bipolarity, not a comfortable idea for the saffrons. The results threaten to put UP back in the contest.
May: UP gets first Muslim Lok Sabha MP after 2014
Sandeep Rai and Pankaj Shah, June 1, 2018: The Times of India
HIGHLIGHTS
UP had created history by not electing a single candidate from the community in the 16th Lok Sabha in 2014
Hasan defeated her nearest rival Mriganka Singh of BJP by 44,618 votes in Kairana
Hasan had won the seat in the 2009 LS polls with BSP by besting BJP’s Hukum Singh
Tabassum Hasan of Rashtriya Lok Dal has become the first Muslim candidate to enter the Lok Sabha from Uttar Pradesh since 2014. Despite Muslims accounting for 19% of the state’s total population, UP had created history by not electing a single candidate from the community in the 16th Lok Sabha in 2014.
Riding on the popularity of its PM candidate Narendra Modi, the BJP-Apna Dal combine had won 73 of 80 seats but they had not fielded a single Muslim. The party had cited ‘winnability’ as the reason behind choosing candidates.
Hasan defeated her nearest rival Mriganka Singh of BJP by 44,618 votes in Kairana. Hasan had won the seat in the 2009 LS polls with BSP by besting BJP’s Hukum Singh.
This election, experts said Hasan not only received support of Muslims and Dalits but also from a section of Jats and Gujjars, RLD’s core vote bank, which had drifted towards BJP in 2014. The development is being seen as a “ray of hope” by many Muslims, among them noted historian Prof S Irfan Habib, who wish the trend must continue and maintain that democracy should be “inclusive”.
On her resounding victory, Hasan said, “Grand alliance has shown the way how democracy works. Everyone, irrespective of religion and caste, is a citizen of this country. We are unified and will contribute to BJP’s defeat in 2019.”
BJP, however, argued that the defeat was due to a consolidation of anti-BJP votes. “Vikas ke upar fatwa bhari pad gaya (Fatwa won over development),” said UP BJP vice-president JPS Rathore.
May: CM Yogi’s stock falls further
From: Subhash Mishra & Pankaj Shah, Yogi’s stock tanks after string of losses, June 1, 2018: The Times of India
BJP’s loss in Kairana, the third in a row after losing Gorakhpur and Phulpur LS seats, coupled with the defeat in the Noorpur assembly seat, is likely to weaken CM Yogi Aditya Nath’s position within BJP and outside.
When questions were raised over Yogi’s leadership and governance after BJP’s defeat in his stronghold Gorakhpur two months ago, the CM had blamed it on “overconfidence” of party workers. However, this time, BJP’s debacle continued despite Yogi holding four rallies in Kairana. He even held a rally in Noorpur.
One of UP BJP’s general secretaries said non-payment of cane dues had angered west UP farmers and Yogi “failed to smell the rebellion brewing among them”.
Thursday’s losses came despite Yogi's aggressive outreach through Gram Swaraj Yojana, envisaging on-the-spot implementation of various central schemes.
Observers also feel Yogi lacks connect with ministers and the 325 MLAs of the ruling coalition. Besides, a number of MLAs and ministers have levelled allegations of corruption and inaction against his administration.
Experts say the Kairana and Noorpur defeats would also arm the opposition to question Yogi as BJP’s pan-India star campaigner.
November: Terrorising the media
Vineet Upadhyay, U’khand trying to terrorise media, says HC, November 3, 2018: The Times of India
Uttarakhand high court stayed the arrest of Praveen Sahni and Saurabh Sahni, two associates of Samachar Plus CEO Umesh Sharma who is currently in judicial custody. Along with Kumar, Praveen and Saurabh Sahni had also been booked for extortion, trespassing and criminal intimidation.
They had approached the high court for a stay on their arrest and were represented by senior counsel and Supreme Court lawyer KTS Tulsi. Soon after the hearing, Tulsi while speaking to mediapersons said that the HC while ordering a stay on the arrests had said that “the state government is trying to suppress and terrorise the media”. ”
“The judges concurred that there is a need to expose corrupt practices of the system and no one can ban sting operations. ,” Tulsi said.
A new sop: Power theft decriminalised
Pankaj Shah, UP’s new sops: No FIR for power thefts, January 1, 2019: The Times of India
The BJP government in Uttar Pradesh has unleashed a slew of sops for power consumers — from deciding to not lodge FIRs in cases of power theft, popularly known as “katia” connections, to a one-time-settlement scheme for farmers with large power bill dues. These measures come just months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
“Though the Electricity Act has a provision for lodging FIRs against those tapping electricity illegally, the state will not be invoking this,” state energy minister Srikant Sharma told TOI.
“The idea is to legalise electricity connections for better revenue that would subsequently be wheeled into development of power infrastructure. Distribution companies will be asked to get illegal connections legalised,” Sharma said.
2019
BSP benefited from alliance in UP
Swati Mathur, June 6, 2019: The Times of India
The SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan’s performance may have fallen short of Mayawati’s expectations but a close examination of the Lok Sabha results suggests that BSP was the biggest gainer from UP’s grand alliance.
For starters, BSP owes its Lok Sabha revival — from zero seats in 2014 to 10 in 2019 — to the gathbandhan. In contrast, SP maintained status quo at five Lok Sabha seats while losing the family pocketboroughs of Kannauj, Badaun and Firozabad. Ajit Singh’s RLD, on the other hand, drew a blank again, unable to win either of the two seats it contested.
Considering that BSP’s highest Lok Sabha tally was 20 seats in 2009, from where it dropped to zero in 2014, Mayawati’s party recovered at least one half of its peak performance.
“Mayawati has been an egotist with a history of walking away, unceremoniously, from sworn allies. She has done it to BJP and SP in the past, and has done it again with Akhilesh, who was caught off guard,” said Ashok Tripathi, a political analyst.
Significantly, of the 10 seats BSP bagged in the Lok Sabha polls, six were constituencies where SP had finished second in 2014. Keeping in mind the need for an alliance to contain BJP’s rise, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, party insiders claim, agreed to make “sacrifices” for the success of the alliance. This meant conceding seats where SP stood a chance of winning.
In west UP’s Bijnor, for instance, BSP’s Malook Nagar had finished third behind BJP and SP in 2014, while on the reserved seat of Nagina, SP’s Yashvir Singh was ahead of BSP’s Girish Chandra. This time, both Nagar and Chandra won, polling the combined votes of Jats, Yadavs and Muslims in their constituencies.
BSP also wrangled Amroha, Shrawasti, Lalganj and Ghazipur from SP’s kitty for the contest, winning all with the combined gathbandhan vote successfully being transferred to ‘Behenji’.
HC annuls election of Azam Khan's son as MLA
ALLAHABAD: In a jolt to Rampur MP Mohmmad Azam Khan, the Allahabad high court annulled the election of senior SP leader's son Mohammad Abdullah Azam Khan as an Uttar Pradesh MLA on the ground that he was underage and not qualified to fight the poll in 2017.
A bench of Justice SP Kesarwani declared the election of juniour Khan from the Suar assembly segment null and void on a plea by the defeated BSP candidate, Nawab Kazim Ali Khan.
Allowing Kazim Khan's election petition, the bench ruled that Abdullah Azam Khan was not qualified to contest the election of the legislative assembly as he had not yet turned 25 when he the filled nomination paper for the assembly election in 2017.
In his election petition against Abdullah Khan, Kazim Khan had contended that the elected MLA's actual date of birth was January 1, 1993 and not September 30,1990, as claimed in the nomination paper.
Accordingly, he was yet to reach 25 years of age to become eligible to fight the election, when he filed the nomination papers on January 25, 2017, Kazim Khan had contended.
Abdullah Khan was elected as MLA from Suar constituency of Rampur district in Uttar Pradesh on a Samajwadi Party ticket on March 11, 2017.
The unsuccessful Bahujan Samaj Party's candidate from the Suar assembly segment, Kazim Khan, had further pointed out in his election petition that educational certificates, passport and visa of Abdullah Khan mentioned January 1, 1993 as his date of birth.
But in his nomination papers, Abdullah Khan had mentioned September 30, 1990 as his birth date on the basis of a certificate from Lucknow's Birth and Death registrar.
The bench unseated the Suar MLA after examining entire fact as borne out of various documents, including Abdullah Khan's mother service record, which too had mentioned January 1, 1993.
Placing special reliance on the service book of Abdullah Khan mother, Tazeen Fatima, a former Rajya Sabha MP, Justice Kesarwani said in his 49-page judgement that it was an "admitted piece of evidence".
In its ruling unseating the Suar MLA, the court directed the high court's registrar general to intimate the substance of the verdict to the Election Commission of India and the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly's speaker to take follow-up actions.
To buttress his contention, Kazim Khan, a four-time MLA from Suar, had contended that Azam Khan's son had filed false documents in support of his age.
Earlier at one stage, Abdullah Khan's mother appeared as a witness before the court and contended that her son was born on September 30, 1990 as can be seen by her service records, registering the fact that she had taken the maternity leave in 1990 when Abdullah was born.
The court, however, rejected her claim.
Besides her, Dr Uma Singh, a senior gynecologist of Queen Mary's Hospital, Gandhi Memorial and associated Hospitals and that of KG Medical College, Lucknow, also appeared in court as witness.
After recording statement of all witnesses and having heard the arguments of all sides, the court had reserved its judgment on September 27, 2019.
SP-BSP pact begins to collapse
Swati Mathur & Neha Lalchandani, June 4, 2019: The Times of India
From: Swati Mathur & Neha Lalchandani, June 4, 2019: The Times of India
Less than five months after BSP and SP buried over two decades of animosity to hammer out an alliance to defeat BJP, the much-hyped “permanent gathbandhan” has run into troubled waters with BSP chief Mayawati asking her cadre to “be prepared” to contest bypolls to 11 seats in the UP assembly, and triggering talk that it may be splitsville soon. She also asked BSP workers to be ready to contest all 403 seats in the 2022 assembly polls.
The decision to contest bypolls on its own is crucial since BSP usually does not contest bypolls and made an exception only in 2007 when it contested the Farrukhabad seat.
At the meeting of elected representatives, Mayawati asked her cadre “not to depend on anyone”. Though there was no formal call to end the gathbandhan and the BSP chief said she was “very unhappy” that the SP did not perform as well as it should have, practical concerns about her own and her party’s future seemed to trump worries about strained ties with Akhilesh Yadav.
‘Akhilesh failed to ensure victory of even his relatives’
Mayawati’s post-poll address dwelt on the split in the Yadav vote-bank because of internal warring in SP and Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav parting ways with him. The Dalit leader with prime ministerial aspirations also said BSP will analyse the extent to which Shivpal, who formed Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party before elections, cut into SP’s traditional votes and impacted gathbandhan’s vote share.
“Yadav votes were not transferred to us but our votes went to them. Samajwadi Party won where Muslims voted big for them,” she said.
“Gathbandhan’s success was contingent on Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav having complete sway over the Yadav community votes. However, this did not happen because of the internal problems in SP,” a source quoted Mayawati as having told her party representatives.
A party worker said, “Mayawati said Akhilesh failed to ensure victory of family members”, alluding to electoral losses of three SP family members — Akhilesh’s spouse Dimple and cousins Dharmendra and Akshay from Kannauj, Badaun and Firozabad respectively. Another party member added: “Mayawati said the cadre insisted on an alliance, but her own experience with alliances has never been good. She referred to BSP’s tie-up with Samajwadi Party in 1993 to argue BSP fared poorly when in an alliance.”
Mayawati also made structural changes to its Uttar Pradesh party unit. The state has been divided into four sectors — West, Lucknow, Varanasi and Gorakhpur. She also rotated zonal in-charges. She replaced in-charges of BSP units in six states along with three state presidents of Delhi and Madhya Pradesh.
Why the SP-BSP-RLD alliance failed to click
Pankaj Shah, May 29, 2019: The Times of India
Lok Sabha polls: Vote transfer failure played spoiler; SP & Congress hit most
LUCKNOW: The SP-BSP-RLD alliance failed to click in Uttra Pradesh since the transfer of votes the Opposition parties expected did not happen.
A comparison of vote share between 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017 UP assembly elections shows that while BJP’s vote share shot up by 8% this year, it dipped significantly for SP, BSP, and RLD which had struck a pre-poll alliance. Even Congress saw its vote share slip distinctly as compared to what it got in 2017.
Riding on the popularity of PM Narendra Modi, BJP saw its vote share rise from 41.57% in 2017 elections to 49.6%. With Apna Dal, the BJP-led NDA saw its vote share increase to almost 51%, which was what the NDA leadership had targeted.
Political experts attribute the rise in BJP’s vote share to Modi’s popularity and the ground work the party did to combat SP-BSP alliance. BSP which contested 38 Lok Sabha seats got 19.5% votes and won 10 seats but its vote share was almost three percent less in comparison to 2017 elections when it got over 22% votes.
Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party registered a humiliating loss as its vote share dipped from 28.32% in 2017 to 18% — a drop of 10%. The sharp dip resulted in SP winning just five of the 37 seats it contested, and the Yadav clan losing its strongholds, including Kannauj, from where Akhilesh’s wife Dimple had contested as well as Budaun and Firozabad from where Akhilesh’s cousins Dharmendra Yadav and Akshay Yadav were in fray, respectively.
The story was no different for Ajit Singh’s RLD which faced a complete rout and its vote share slipped from 2.89% in 2017 assembly elections to 1.67% this year despite being part of gathbandhan and expecting transfer of Muslim and Dalit votes. Both, RLD chief Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Chaudhary lost from Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat, respectively.
The situation was even more murkier for Congress which saw its vote share dip from 22.09% in 2017 to just 6.31%, more than one-third. The grand old party could win just one seat, Rae Bareli, from where UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi triumphed.
2021
2021: teachers on election duty die of Covid
Kanwardeep Singh, July 16, 2021: The Times of India
The UP government will compensate the families of 2,020 of its employees who died of Covid-19 while on panchayat election duty in April and May, reports Kanwardeep Singh. Of them, 1,071 were teachers or education staff. In May, the government had said just three teachers had died on poll duty.
Prior to the election, the risk teachers were at during poll duty had been taken up in court. The Supreme Court eventually allowed counting to take place following the predetermined schedule after the state government and the State Election Commission (SEC) said precautions would be taken. But just as the election was under way, TOI had on April 24 first reported that several teachers had died after panchayat election duty with Covid-19 symptoms — teachers’ unions put the toll at 1,621 after the polls ended.
Initially, the government counted only those who had died within 24 hours of poll duty. The state’s basic education department had then said that election duty “starts when an employee reaches the training centre and ends after he completes the polling or the counting and leaves the booth.” If someone died within those few hours, their families would be eligible for compensation. When that was extended to a 30-day window — Covid symptoms take time to appear — the number of those eligible for the Rs 30-lakh compensation went up.
The basic education department said the responsibility of final identification was not theirs. The government, in turn, said the state polling body was accountable.
Oct/ How Yogi Adityanath handled the Lakhimpur Kheri agitation
Oct 13, 2021: The Times of India
Adityanath’s predilection to act independent of the BJP’s central command was on full display when a car, owned by Ashish Misra, the son of central minister Ajay Misra Teni, mowed down peaceful protestors in Lakhimpur Kheri. The situation understandably became combustible after the farmers, who dissented against the Centre’s farm laws and other issues, lynched members of the scion’s entourage and burnt down vehicles. The Centre pretended nothing happened. Adityanath was left to fend for himself. In the past, he put down agitations by unleashing his cops and the bullies of his Hindu Yuva Vahini on the protesters.
Nov/ 4 SP MLCs join BJP before UP polls
Pankaj Shah, Nov 18, 2021: The Times of India
Four sitting MLCs of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party defected to BJP, giving the saffron party a turbo boost on the road to assembly elections in UP next year. The exit of Narendra Bhati, CP Chand, Ravi Shankar Singh and Rama Niranjan came amid speculation about a coup by BJP to put SP on the back foot even before the battle begins. The term of all four MLCs in the upper house runs till March 7.
“Akhilesh won’t be able to sleep tonight,” said UP BJP chief Swatantra Dev Singh after inducting the four MLCs into the party at its state headquarters here. He urged all four to ensure their supporters joined BJP en masse at the booth and sector levels.
Bhati had grabbed eyeballs for going against IAS officer Durga Sakhti Nagpal when the latter launched a crackdown on the sand mining mafia during SP’s last stint in government. He represents the politically influential Gurjar community in west UP. CP Chand is a Dalit from CM Yogi Adityanath’s backyard Gorakhpur.
2022
BJP blooms in Yadav belt; Jayant holds on to Jat areas
Pankaj Shah, March 12, 2022: The Times of India
LUCKNOW: When SP chief Akhilesh Yadav decided to contest his first assembly election from Karhal assembly seat in Mainpuri, little he would have wondered that his party would end up losing an additional seat from the district as compared to 2017 assembly elections.
While in 2017, the BJP could win just Bhongaon in Mainpuri district, this time, the saffron outfit snatched the Mainpuri Sadar seat as well from SP. In Bhongaon and Mainpuri Sadar, BJP’s Ram Naresh Agnihotri and Jayveer Singh emerged victorious, respectively. SP managed to hold on to Kishni, from where SP’s Brijesh Katheria won. This was besides Karhal which was won by Akhilesh.
The additional win in Mainpuri, the parliamentary seat of SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, emerged as a key pointer to the scenario in the otherwise “Yadav belt” of UP.
Around 32 assembly seats straddling districts like Etawah, Mainpuri, Auraiyya, Kannauj, Farrukhabad, Firozabad, Badaun and Sambhal have a sizable population of Yadav community. Of this, the SP could win nine assembly seats only, while the rest 23 were bagged by the BJP.
In Etawah, Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav emerged victorious for the sixth consecutive time from his traditional seat of Jaswantnagar. SP made an improvement in the district by snatching Bharthana reserved seat from the BJP. The Etawah Sadar seat, however, remained with the BJP. BJP continued to mark its presence in all seats of Kannauj and Auraiyya.
The Kannauj reserved seat was won by former IPS Aseem Arun who defeated SP’s Anil Dohre by a narrow margin. There was a close contest between SP and BJP in Jasrana seat in Firozabad district. In Badaun, SP managed to register a win in Bisauli which was won by BJP in 2017.
Even as SP struggled in the Yadav belt, its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal managed to register a win in eight seats -- in what signalled consolidation of Jats back with the Jayant Chaudhary led political outfit.
The community had drifted away from RLD after BJP made aggressive overtures at the community after the Muzaffarnagar riots which culminated in heavy attrition between Jats and Muslims. Nevertheless, BJP remained the major gainer in the region essentially dominated by Jat and Gujjar.
For RLD, it was a huge improvement considering the 2017 assembly elections in which it could win only the Chhaprauli seat in Baghpat. The lone RLD MLA Sahendra Singh Ramala, too, defected to the BJP leaving the party completely faceless.
This time, RLD took the revenge from Ramala who was defeated by party’s Ajay Kumar. The other big win for RLD came in Sadabad where its candidate Mukesh Kumar defeated BSP turncoat Ramveer Upadhyay who had defected to BJP.
So was the case with Thana Bhawan where RLD’s Asraf Ali was declared elected. The other seats which were won by RLD included Shamli Budhana, Purquazi, Meerapur and Siwal Khas.
The new state cabinet
Pankaj Shah1 , March 26, 2022: The Times of India
Lucknow: Yogi Adityanath took oath on Friday for a second consecutive term as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, heading a team with 31 new faces and a new deputy CM in Brajesh Pathak who made a strong entry at Dinesh Sharma’s cost.
While BJP retained Keshav Prasad Maurya as deputy CM despite his defeat, highprofile names — Ashutosh Tandon, Mahendra Singh, Shrikant Sharma and Sidharth Nath Singh — were dropped. Among other prominent fresh faces in the ministry were former Gujarat-cadre IAS officer and PM Modi’s trusted bureaucrat AK Sharma (appointed cabinet minister) and former Kanpur police commissioner and 1994-batch IPS officer, Asim Arun, who is among 14 junior ministers with independent charge.
Of the 31 first-timers inducted, eight were of cabinet rank, eight junior ministers with independent charge and 15 ministers of state.
The social composition of the ministry, sworn in at a mega event at the Ekana stadium and attended by the saffron star cast led by PM Modi, stri- kes a balance between upper castes and non-Yadav backwards who formed the mainstay of BJP’s response to the Akhilesh-led challenge.
Of the 60 ministers in the outgoing cabinet (including Yogi), 21 made a comeback while 26 were dropped.
Uttarakhand ex-guv among five women in Yogi ministry
Keshav Maurya’s continuation as deputy CM attests to his credentials as the party’s OBC face while Pathak’s appointment as the other deputy marks a big leg-up for the recent import from BSP who now has outshone old Brahmin faces from within the fold. Just like last time, the ministry included only five women, including the party’s prominent Jatav face and former Uttarakhand governor Baby Rani Maurya. It is, however, possible that like the previous time, more women may be inducted later. Yogi has the room to add at least eight more ministerial colleagues.
Both allies of BJP, Apna Dal and Nishad Party, have found representation, with Union minister Anupriya Patel’s spouse Ashish and Sanjay Nishad getting cabinet berths. BJP has replaced Mohsin Raja, a Shia, with former ABVP functionary Danish Azad Ansari, a Sunni.
The other women ministers are five-time MLA Gulab Devi from Sambhal district, Pratibha Shukla, Rajni Tiwari, and Vijay Laxmi Gautam. “I, Adityanath Yogi...,” the CM’s deep voice rang out from the loudspeakers at the Ekana stadium, bedizened with flowers, cutouts and posters of PM Modi, Union minister Amit Shah, BJP chief JP Nadda and Yogi himself, amid loud cheers from around 70,000 party workers gathered. The other high-profile dignitaries who attended the ceremony included chief ministers of 11 other BJP-governed states, industrialists, film stars and dharmacharyas of various sects and monasteries.
It was a historical moment for Yogi, the peethadheshwar of Gorakshapeeth, as he took oath as CM, becoming the only political figure in UP to return to office after a five-year tenure. Earlier, only Govind Vallabh Pant (1952), Dr Sampoornand (1957), Chandra Bhanu Gupta (1962), Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna (1974) and Narayan Dutt Tewari (1985) had resumed charge as UP CM, but their stints lasted up to two years only.
Born Ajay Singh Bisht in Pauri Garwhal’s Panchur village (Uttarakhand) on June 5, 1972, Yogi renounced worldly life before turning to spirituality in the early 1990s. His record in the UP Vidhan Sabha states he became the successor of Goraksha- peeth at an early age of 22 on February 15, 1994, and then head priest after the death of his guru, Mahant Avaidyanath, in September 2014. In 2017, when BJP stormed to power with a landslide victory, the then Yogi cabinet had 47 ministers and two deputy CMs. After its first expan- sion in August 2019, the cabinet had 56 ministers. Of them, two —Chetan Chauhan and Kamal Rani Varun — succumbed to Covid, while Rajesh Agarwal was shifted to an organisational role in the party. In September last year, seven ministers were inducted, taking the tally to 60.
