Revision as of 17:08, 15 February 2019

Pakistan’s sword arm

2016: ISI instigates two Jaish factions

The Times of India, May 27 2016

Behind ISI's renewed India terror offensive: Tale of 2 Jaish factions

Rajshekhar jha  Investigations conducted by Indian intelligence agencies point towards a pattern linking a failed attack in Delhi in mid-December, the Pathankot attack on January 2 and the two attacks on the Indian consulate and mission in Afghanistan on January 3 and March 2, respectively.

All these strikes bear the stamp of two Jaish factions -Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Jaish ul Haq (JuH). TOI had reported on May 26 about Jaish's failed attack in Delhi in mid-December.

Sources say ISI has been pitting the two Jaish factions against each other and pressuring them into targeting Indian installations to prove their worth. While JeM is headed by Maulana Masood Azhar, JuH is led by Maualana Abdul Rehman (MAR). Both are connected to the IC-814 hijacking of 1999. Rehman orchestrated the hijack while Azhar was freed in exchange for passengers. According to an intelligence report, this approach is resulting in back-toback strikes. The theory is further nailed by the timing of the strikes, origin and background of operatives and their targets -all of whom are India-centric, sources say. The ploy to “divide and counterpoise“ is a time-tested ISI strategy, sources say, indicating that ISI was di rectly involved in the opera tions. Sources say the confes sion report of two Jaish ter rorists, Ahmed Khan Durra ni and Abdul Qadri, who were arrested by Kabul poli rested by Kabul poli ce in March, has opened a can of worms, revealing how Pakistan is pro viding both the Ja ish groups with in frastructure to run their training camps. The duo said they were trained at an ISI-operated trai ning camp in Bare Khyber Pankhutnkhwa.

There is a reason as to why Jaish is in focus after a long gap. At a time when mo vements of groups like Lash kar-e-Toiba and jihadist Ha feez Saeed are being watched closely, Jaish has proven to be ISI's trump card. As the ISI and Pakistan army escalated their attempts to target an Indian establishment outside J&K after PM Narendra Modi's Lahore stopover last year, the two factions of JeM emerged as a strategic choice for them.

While it is difficult for ISI to distance itself from LeT strikes, they are more comfortable doing so where Jaish is involved due to a lack of direct evidence connecting the two.

Jaish's revival is being considered dangerous for Delhi and other metro cities.Unlike the Lashkar and other outfits, Jaish's fidayeens are far more organised and more lethal. The Indian agencies are hoping they can nip in the bud the outfit's fresh attempts.

Pakistan’s main arm since 2017

February 15, 2019: The Times of India

India withdrew the 'most-favoured nation' or MFN status to Pakistan after a terror attack which took lives of at least 40 CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) personnel in Jammu and Kashmir. The country is considering punitive actions like significant hike in customs duties, port curbs and ban on goods imported from Pakistan.

This is one of the deadliest terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir when a suicide bomber rammed a vehicle carrying over 100 kg of explosives into their bus in Pulwama district.

The move to remove MFN status would enable India to increase customs duty on goods coming from the neighbouring nation.

When was it given to Pakistan:

India granted the MFN status to Pakistan way back in in 1996, but the neighbouring country has not yet reciprocated.

In 2012, Pakistan had committed to giving the MFN status to India but retracted later. Instead of MFN, Pakistan said it was working on granting Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) status to India but that also was not announced.

The MFN status was accorded under WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Both India and Pakistan are signatories to this; and are members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which means they have to treat each other and the other WTO member countries as favoured trading partners in terms of imposing customs duties on goods.

What happens when India removes MFN status:

Removal of this status means India can now enhance customs duties to any level on goods coming from Pakistan, a trade expert said.

Withdrawal of the MFN status would significantly hit Pakistan's exports to India, which stood at $488.5 million (around Rs 3,482.3 crore) in 2017-18.

Last year in November, a senior aide to Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan had said that the country has "no immediate plans" to grant MFN status to India. Pakistan allows only 137 products to be exported from India through the Wagah border land route.

Total India-Pakistan trade has increased marginally to $2.41 billion in 2017-18 as against $2.27 billion in 2016-17. India imported goods worth $488.5 million in 2017-18 and exported goods worth $1.92 billion in that fiscal.

Under MFN pact, a WTO member country is obliged to treat the other trading nation in a non-discriminatory manner, especially with regard to customs duty and other levies.

What India imports and exports:

India mainly exports cotton, dyes, chemicals, plastics, vegetables and iron and steel; while it imports fruits, cement, leather and spices.

The main items which Pakistan exports to India include fresh fruits, cement, petroleum products, bulk minerals and ores and finished leather.

The CCS meet was chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the security scenario in J&K in the wake of the Pulwama terror attack.

Pros of MFN:

MFN status is helpful for the developing nations. The countries with the status have broader access to a market for trade goods, reduced cost of export items owing to highly reduced tariffs and trade barriers.

It also reduces the bureaucratic hurdles and varied kinds of other tariffs for imports. It then increases demands for the goods and giving a boost to the economy and export sector.

What commerce ministry said:

The commerce ministry would soon notify to the World Trade Organization (WTO) its decision to revoke the MFN status to Pakistan on security grounds, an official said. The ministry would work on a list of goods imported from Pakistan over which India would increase the customs duties.

2014-19 Feb: fatalities

See graphic:

2014- Feb 19: fatalities

Massod Azhar: A brief profile

The Times of India, Dec 20 2016 

Masood Azhar, a brief profile; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, Dec 20 2016

The National Investigation Agency's chargesheet against Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar comes days ahead of Dec 31, the day China's refusal to back India's move in the UN to get the terror kingpin declared a global terrorist, is set to lapse.Here's how Azhar -in Delhi's list of 50 most-wanted terrorists -masterminded attacks on Indian soil

Who is Masood Azhar?

The jihadist became a household name in India in Dec 1999 when he was freed from Kot Balwal jail in return for 155 passengers held hostage on Indian Airlines flight IC814 that was hijacked to Kandahar in Afghanistan.