Revision as of 22:10, 31 March 2021

An overview

2020

December 25, 2020: The Times of India

Covid 19 in India, Jan to Dec 23, 2020, a state-wise overview
From: December 25, 2020: The Times of India

11 months of ups and downs in India’s battle against Covid

The peaks of 90,000+ daily cases appear far behind now, but as the new year beckons, India has a wary eye open for a new strain. Atul Thakur charts the course of the virus since the first case in January

India reported its first Covid-19 case on January 30 when an Indian student in Wuhan tested positive upon her return to Kerala. Through February, though, India added only two more cases, taking the country's cumulative total to three cases and zero deaths.

The coronavirus’ real onslaught began in March — within the first 10 days, many large states began reporting cases. Delhi, Rajasthan and Telangana reported their first cases on March 2, followed by Haryana and Uttar Pradesh on March 4. Separated by thousands of kilometres both Tamil Nadu and Ladakh reported their first case on March 7. On March 9, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Punjab reported positive cases. By March-end, 27 of the 36 states and UTs had reported positive cases. India also saw its first Covid-19 deaths on March 13, when both Delhi and Karnataka reported their first fatalities. By the end of the month, 13 states had witnessed Covid deaths.

Indians spent most of April under one of the world’s strictest lockdowns, but cases kept crawling up. From little over a thousand, India’s cumulative Covid case count went up to over 33,000 by April-end. The death toll also crossed the 1,000-mark in April. By the end of the month, Sikkim, Nagaland, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu and Lakshadweep were the only ones yet to report cases.

Cases breached the one-lakh threshold in May. The month also saw cumulative deaths cross the 5,000-mark. But even by the end of the month, 12 states and UTs, including Ladakh, Tripura, Puducherry, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Sikkim, Manipur and Mizoram were yet to report their first deaths.

But Covid unleashed its full force during the first phase of unlocking in June and cases raced from 1.8 lakh to 5.6 lakh over the course of the month. Cumulative deaths, too, rose from 5,164 on May 31 to 16,893 on June 30. The rapid increase in both cases and deaths continued in July and August. From over 5 lakh by June-end, cases rose to more than 35 lakh by the end of August.

The silver lining was that the otherwise grim months of July and August showed a glimpse of what lay beyond the peak of cases. Tamil Nadu was the first state to peak. The daily average of new cases touched 6,803 on July 30 and hasn’t crossed that mark again. Bihar also saw its highest daily case tally on August 15.

Eighteen states and UTs reported their maximum daily average of cases in September. Among the larger states, Andhra Pradesh saw its peak at 10,500 cases on September 2. Other major states like Maharashtra (22,149), UP (6,581), Odisha (4,272), Chhattisgarh (3,282), Assam (2,875), Telangana (2,718), Punjab (2,639), Haryana (2,566), and MP (2,523) reached their peak daily cases in September. India reached its peak on September 17, when the daily average touched 93,199 cases.

There has been a steady decline in daily cases since September, and by October-end it appeared that 29 states and UTs were past their peaks.

The daily average of cases is over 5,000 for Kerala and more than 2,000 for Maharashtra and West Bengal now. The average ranges between 1,000 and 2,000 for Chhattisgarh, UP, Delhi, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Judging from the overall trends since September, it seems that the worst is over.

A timeline

Shuja Asrar, January 1, 2021: The Times of India

September recorded the highest number of cases, February- December 2020
From: Shuja Asrar, January 1, 2021: The Times of India

Coronavirus calendar: How the Covid pandemic unfolded across India in 2020

NEW DELHI: More than 82 million cases, over 1.8 million deaths, a record slump in the economy, loss of livelihoods of millions, lockdown that confined billions of people inside their houses — the coronavirus pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities and tested resilience of humans in 2020.

In India, the virus has so far infected 10.2 million people and claimed the lives of over 148,000 people. The month of September witnessed the most catastrophic phase of the pandemic when over 2.6 million cases were confirmed.

We look at how the pandemic spread across the country since the detection of the first case on January 30.

January (cases:1 | deaths:0)

30 First case confirmed in Kerala's Thrissur

31 WHO declares the coronavirus a Global Emergency of International Concern

February (cases:3 | deaths:0)

2 Second case reported in Kerala's Alappuzha

3 Third case reported in Kerala's Kasaragod

11 WHO names new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and disease caused by it Covid-19

27 A total 759 Indians and 43 foreigners airlifted from Wuhan

March (cases:1,397 | deaths:35)

6 Screening of international arrivals in India

11 WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic

12 First confirmed death in India. Stock markets crash — BSE SENSEX dropped 8.18%,NIFTY dropped 9%

14 Indian scientists isolated a strain of the novel coronavirus

17 Govt allowed private pathology labs to test for Covid-19

22 One-day janta curfew imposed. Passenger air and train travel suspended

23 Hydroxychloroquine recommended for the treatment of high-risk cases.

25 Lockdown imposed till March 25. All domestic flights suspended

26 Exodus of migrants begin. The government announced an economic relief package of ₹1.7 lakh crore

28 1,000 confirmed cases. PM CARES Fund set up

April (cases:34,863 | deaths:1,154)

14 10,000 cases confirmed. Nationwide lockdown extended till May 3.

16 IPL suspended indefinitely

20 First recovery through plasma therapy

May (cases:190,609 | deaths:5408)

1 Nationwide lockdown extended till May 17

3 5,000 deaths confirmed

4 Liquor shops reopen across the country

7 Phase 1 of Vande Bharat mission begins. 50,000 confirmed cases reported in India.

9 ICMR announces tie up with Bharat Biotech to develop indigenous vaccine for Covid-19

12 PM Narendra Modi announces Rs 20 lakh crore Atmanirbhar package

17 Nationwide lockdown extended till May 31

19 100,000 cases confirmed

June (cases:585,481 | deaths: 17,400)

1 Govt announced guidelines for Unlock 1

10 Recoveries exceed active cases for the first time

12 India overtook UK to become 4th worst-hit coronavirus country

July (cases:1,695,988 | deaths:36511)

1 Govt announces guidelines for Unlock 2.0

6 India overtakes Russia to become third worst-hit country

15 Phase-1 clinical trials of India’s first indigenous Covid-19 vaccine, Covaxin

25 BCCI announces IPL to be held in UAE from September 19

29 Govt announces guidelines for Unlock 3.0

August (cases:3,691,166 | deaths:65,288)

3 Serum Institute of India got approval from DCGI for trial phases II & III

26 Serum Institute of India starts India trials of Covishield

29 Centre issues Unlock 4.0 guidelines

31 India's GDP contracts 23.9% in April-June quarter

September (cases:6,312,584 | deaths:98,678)

7 India became second worst-affected country after the US

22 India reported over 1 lakh coronavirus recoveries in a single-day for the first time

28 Global death count crossed one million

30 Government issued Unlock 5.0 guidelines

October (cases:8,184,082 | deaths:122,111)

5 Govt said 20-25 cr people to be vaccinated by July 25

26 Govt asked state to prepare 3-tier system for vaccine rollout

28 Voting for phase 1 of Bihar assembly elections

November (cases:9,462,809 | deaths:137,621)

5 Govt said 20-25 cr people to be vaccinated by July 25

26 Govt asked state to prepare 3-tier system for vaccine rollout

28 Voting for phase 1 of Bihar assembly elections

9 Pfizer and BioNtech said vaccine candidate more than 90% effective

10 Delhi in midst of third wave

28 Vaccine trial paricipant demand Rs 5 cr in damages

December (cases:10,244,852 | deaths:148,439)

1 Farmers protests erupt across country

21 India bans flights from UK

29 Six arrivals from UK tested positive for new strain

30 Several cities impose night curfew

Economy, impact on

2020, impact on Indian economy

The impact of Covid-19 on the economy in 2020
From: January 12, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

The impact of Covid-19 on the economy in 2020

2020: India and the world

Quarterly real GDP growth (YoY %), 2020: India and the world
From: February 3, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

Quarterly real GDP growth (YoY %), 2020: India and the world

The stock market/ Sensex, Mar 20-Feb 21

February 16, 2021: The Times of India

Covid and The Indian stock market/ Sensex, Mar 20-Feb 21
From: February 16, 2021: The Times of India

The Budget-led rally on Dalal Street continued for the third straight week as unabated buying led by foreign funds took the sensex past the 52k milestone on Monday. The index opened the session at 51,908 points, rallied to a new life high at 52,236 and settled 610 points higher at 52,154, also a new closing high. Banks and FIs were among the top contributors to the day’s gains. The market cap is now at a record Rs 205 lakh crore (about $2.8 trillion), higher than the country’s GDP.

Analysts believe the Budget could lead to investmentled growth while the proposal for an AMC for banks’ bad assets would release funds for lenders to concentrate on their core business. A stable rupee, with India’s forex reserve nearing $600 billion, is also giving confidence to foreign funds to buy Indian stocks, market players said.

Banking, finance stocks lead surge past 52k pts

The rally since February 1 has also made investors richer by over Rs 19 lakh crore with BSE’s market capitalisation now at an all-time high at Rs 205 lakh crore or about $2.8 trillion. This also lifted India’s market cap above the country’s GDP, making it one of a handful of countries to have a market cap-to-GDP ratio of more than 1.

The gains were led by foreign fund buying who net pumped in over Rs 20,100 crore, or about $2.8 billion. In contrast, domestic funds have net sold stocks worth about Rs 8,960 crore, data from CDSL and BSE showed. The rally in the domestic market was also helped by a global rally but ignored the rising crude oil prices and also the chance of a double-dip recession in the Eurozone.

According to Deepak Jasani, head of retail research, HDFC Securities, global shares rose for the 11th consecutive day to hit a fresh peak on optimism about the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and new fiscal aid from Washington, while tensions in the Middle East drove oil to a 13-month high. “A recent Reuters poll found the euro zone economy was in a double-dip recession and that economists now expect GDP to contract 0.8% in the first quarter, reversing an earlier forecast for growth of 0.6%,” Jasani wrote in a post-market note.

In Monday’s market, the gains came mainly on the back of buying in banking and financial stocks with ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC and Axis Bank contributing over 80% of the sensex’s gain. Selling in TCS, RIL and HUL, however, limited the gains to some extent.

Unemployment

April-June 2020

March 12, 2021: The Times of India

In 1st 3 months of lockdown, urban joblessness hit 20.9%

Had Shot Up From 9.1% In The Previous Quarter, Reveals Govt Data

New Delhi:

The urban unemployment rate in the country shot up to 20.9% in April-June 2020, the period of the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, latest official data showed. The quarterly periodic labour survey (PLFS) showed the unemployment rate rose in the three months to June last year from 9.1% in the previous quarter (January-March quarter) and 8.9% recorded in the April-June period of 2019. The government had imposed one of the strictest lockdowns to stop the spread of the infection which hurt economic activity and led to job losses in key sectors such as hospitality, airlines, tourism and other segments of the services sector.

The PLFS was launched by the National Statistical Office in April, 2017, to estimate the employment and unemployment indicators (worker population ratio, labour force participation rate, unemployment rate) in the short time interval of three months for urban areas only in the current weekly status. Under CWS, a person is considered as unemployed in a week if he/she did not work even for one hour on any day during the reference week but was available for work at least for one hour on any day during the reference week, according to the PLFS.

The survey showed that the unemployment rate among males at the all India level for all ages was at 20.8% in the April-June 2020 period, higher than the previous quarter’s 8.7% and above the 8.3% rate in April-June 2019. Among females, it was at 21.2%, higher than the January-March quarter’s 10.5% and above the 11.3% recorded in April-June 2019.

The unemployment rate among those in the 15-29 years of age at the all India level was 34.7%, higher than the previous quarter’s 21.1% and above the 21.6% in April-June 2019.

The survey showed the labour force participation rate slowed to 35.9% in the April-June quarter of 2020, lower than the previous quarter’s 37.5% and below the 36.2% recorded in April-June 2019. Among males, the rate slowed to 55.5%, lower than the 56.7% in the January-March quarter and below the 56.3% in the April-June quarter of 2019. Among females, it slowed to 15.5% in the three months to June 2020, below the 17.3% in the January-March quarter of 2019. The rate was at 15% in April-June 2019. Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is defined as the percentage of population in the labour force.

Maharashtra had the highest urban unemployment rate at 35.6%, followed by Jharkhand 32% and MP at 28.9%. All states recorded double digit urban unemployment rate in the April-June quarter.

Government finances: impact on

Capex 2020

The impact of the pandemic on state Government finances, capex: 2020
From: March 23, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

The impact of the pandemic on state Government finances, capex: 2020

Debt: GSDP ratio

The impact of the pandemic on state Government finances: Debt: GSDP ratio, 2020
From: March 30, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

The impact of the pandemic on state Government finances: Debt: GSDP ratio, 2020

India vis-à-vis other countries

2020-mid Jan 2021

Armaan Bhatnagar, January 14, 2021: The Times of India

India witnessed just one COVID peak compared to US and UK
From: Armaan Bhatnagar, January 14, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

India witnessed just one COVID peak compared to US and UK

Covid-19: Why India is different among worst-hit nations

NEW DELHI: Once leading the world in daily case count, India has shown a marked improvement in its coronavirus situation over the last few weeks. From hitting a peak of over 97,000 new cases in a single day last September, the country is now consistently reporting under 20,000 daily cases on an average. And while its battle against coronavirus is far from over, India's Covid-19 graph does stand out when compared to some other badly-hit nations around the world.

The United States leads the world when it comes to coronavirus infections and deaths. It has been reporting over 2 lakh cases daily for the last few weeks, with the average case count perilously close to its peak of nearly 3 lakh infections.

Similarly, the situation is also grim in UK, Brazil and Spain, all of which are reporting fresh infections that are close to the peak number.

The percent of the peak a country currently reports gives an idea of how far it is from containing the spread of the virus relative to the worst days of its outbreak.

In comparison, India's current average daily case count stands at just 18% of its peak. If the declining trend holds, the percentage is expected to go down further.

Lesser deaths, more recoveries

India's current recovery rate is at 96.5%, which is among the highest in the world.

When it comes to deaths, India has among the lowest case fatality ratio (CFR) vis-a-vis the worst-hit nations. The case fatality ratio is the percentage of deaths compared to the total number of cases.

India's CFR currently stands at 1.4%. Meanwhile, Mexico has the highest CFR at 8.7%, way above others.

Lowest cases per million

India's Covid-19 situation can also be understood through its average case count per million.

Despite being a densely populated nation, India has been reporting just over 7,500 cases per million people. The number is almost 1/10th compared to the US, which is averaging over 71,000 cases per million people.

And while India's overall testing rate is lower compared to other nations, there has not been a major decline in testing since the peak in September. India was testing an average of 1 million people in the months of September and October, and the figures have now come down to 8 lakh per day. However, the proportionate fall in cases is much higher, indicating that the situation has been brought under control.

No more peaks?

For long, experts were divided over whether India would witness another Covid wave after September.

But in December last year, several experts suggested that India may not witness another peak at all. They said that even if India does hit a new peak, it won't be as bad as the first one.

This is evident from the constant decline in the cases, or the flattening of the curve, over the last few months.

Meanwhile, countries like the UK and US continue to report record highs, with each peak worse than the previous one.

Both countries have already hit their third peak, with the virus showing no signs of abating.

Impact of ‘Lockdown’ and govt policies

The Impact of the Covid ‘Lockdown’ of 2020 and govt policies, in India and the world.
From: January 30, 2021: The Times of India

See graphic:

The Impact of the Covid ‘Lockdown’ of 2020 and govt policies, in India and the world.

Spread in India, Asia

Neutrophil elastase deficiency helped

Yogita Rao, February 9, 2021: The Times of India

Protein behind corona’s slow Asia spread: Study

MUMBAI: Deficiency in a particular human protein, which is more common in Europe and the United States than in Asia, could explain why coronavirus is not spreading as fast in Asian countries. A team of scientists from the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics in Kalyani, West Bengal, have found a biological reason for the slower spread of a mutant of coronavirus in Asia compared to the West. The team has explained how higher levels of a human protein — neutrophil elastase — helps the virus to enter the human cell, multiply and also spread faster from infected individuals.

However, this protein is kept in check by the biological system, which produces another protein called alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT). AAT deficiency leads to higher levels of neutrophil elastase in the cells, which in turn helps in faster spread of the virus. This deficiency is known to be much higher in Europe and America than among Asians. The study has been published in the journal, Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

The team of scientists led by Nidhan Biswas and Partha Majumder observed that the rate of the spread of the mutant virus — D614G — has been non-uniform across geographical regions. The researchers say that, “…in order to reach 50% relative frequency, the 614G subtype took significantly longer time in East Asia (5.5 months) compared to Europe (2.15 months) as well as North-America (2.83 months).”

“Many were speculating why coronavirus spreads differentially across geographies. The most popular speculation was the higher temperature in Asia was not congenial to the spread of the coronavirus. We believed the cause had to be biological, rather than physical or social,” said Majumder.

The researchers linked the differential spread to an additional cleavage site created by the D614G mutant virus, for entry into the human cell.

“However, some naturally-occurring mutations in the AAT-producing gene results in deficiency of the AAT protein. This deficiency is known to be much higher in the Caucasians of Europe and America than among Asians,” said Majumder. “While we used AAT deficiency data from East Asia, along with North America and Europe, for the study, considering the pace at which the coronavirus is spreading, the numbers are representative of other Asian regions too, including India.”

As per their data, AAT deficiency is the least in East Asian countries — 8 per 1,000 individuals in Malaysia, 5.4 per 1,000 in South Korea, 2.5 in Singapore. On the other hand, 67.3 in per 1,000 individuals in Spain are AAT deficient, 34.6 in the UK and 51.9 in France and in the US it is prevalent in 29 individuals among 1,000.

The researchers emphasized that this finding along with other social factors may explain the differential geographical/ethnic spread of the mutant virus.

Vaccine diplomacy, India’s

As on Jan 31, 2021

February 1, 2021: The Times of India

The export of Covid vaccines made in India, As on Jan 31, 2021
From: February 1, 2021: The Times of India

India-made Covishield part of Pak jab drive under vax alliance

Govt’s Vaccine Diplomacy Gathers Pace

New Delhi:

India’s vaccine diplomacy took further wing with 1 lakh anti-Covid shots being sent to Oman, a close partner in the Gulf, after having supplied the jabs to immediate neighbours. Later this week, India is scheduled to send over 5 lakh doses to Afghanistan. India will also send 2 lakh doses to Nicaragua, 1 lakh to Barbados, 70,000 to Dominica and 1.5 lakh to Mongolia, though dates are yet to be finalised.

Egypt, Algeria, UAE and Kuwait have all purchased vaccines and are on the commercial export list. Apart from the gifts, Mongolia (10 lakh) Nicaragua (3 lakh), Saudi Arabia (30 lakh), Myanmar and Bangladesh are among those who have contracted to purchase vaccines from India.

7m made-in-India vax doses to be part of Pak’s inoculation drive

The purchases are made commercially, but need export clearance from the Indian government. Meanwhile, around seven million made-in-India doses of AstraZeneca’s Covishield vaccine will be part of Pakistan’s free Covid-19 vaccination drive starting next week under the global Covax alliance, PM Imran Khan’s special assistant on health Dr Faisal Sultan said.

As a special Pakistani plane departed for China to fetch the first batch of Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccine, Dr Sultan announced that around seven million out of the 17 million committed doses of Covishield would reach the country by March.

“Though AstraZeneca is being prepared in India, it will come through Covax, an international alliance which has announced free vaccines for 20% of Pakistan’s population. DRAP (Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan) has already registered both Sinopharm and AstraZeneca,” Dr Sultan said.

The UN Covax initiative will see India selling about 100 lakh doses of vaccines.

In addition, the UN will be buying about 4 lakh doses for its own workers all over the world. India’s vaccination drive is attracting attention, with Indian ambassador to the Philippines Shambu Kumaran tweeting on Sunday that the Asean nation was examining India's rollout of inoculations, pointing to reports in the local media there.