Assam: Assembly elections
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Barak Valley
The Times of India, March 29, 2016
B B Goswami & Naresh Mitra
Why a lotus bloom is so crucial for BJP in the valley of high stakes
For BJP , the battle for the Bengalidominated Barak Valley in Lower Assam is a high-stakes game. In the 1991 assembly polls, it put in a stunning performance here winning 9 of the 15 seats. But it lost ground to the Congress subsequently .This time around, the saffron party hopes to reverse fortunes and snatch lost territory from the ruling party for a maiden shy at office. Contesting 91 seats in the state this time, leaving about 35 to allies, the BJP is the only party in the formation it heads that has any appeal in the valley. The AGP , an Assamese outfit, has little traction in the valley . Similarly , the Bodo People's Front holds sway in areas where their community is in a majority . That makes the 15 Barak Valley seats so much more crucial.
Conscious of this reality , the BJP has focused firepower here. The Prime Minister campaigned in Silchar. The valley has a sizeable Bengali Hindu presence, but over the years the Bengali Muslim population has risen sharply , in fact they are in a majority in four assembly seats.
This makes BJP's task more challeng ing. In 1947, the region's overwhelmingly Hindu population stopped it from being lumped with East Pakistan. Today , the Barak valley has a Muslim population of over 50%. While Hindus are a majority in Cachar, Muslims dominate Hailakandi and Karimganj.
This is why the NDA govern ment's promise to grant citizenship status to all refugees of religious minorities fleeing Bangladesh got trac tion among Hindus here.But the government's subsequent silence has made the region restless. PM Naredra Modi skipped the issue in his speech near Silchar.
In 2011, the region's Bengali Hindu population went strongly with the Congress, consolidating against a fastrising All India United Democratic Front of Badruddin Ajmal. Gogoi's party swept 13 of the valley's 15 seats.
“Our strength has grown since the 2014 LS polls. The anger against Congress is strong. This time, we expect to do well,“ Assam BJP vicepresident and candidate for North Karimganj Mission Ranjan Das, said.
Assam PCC spokesman Deepan Dewanjee said his party would sweep Barak Valley . But the party is hob bled by the absence of senior politicians such as Santosh Mohan Deb. In the 2014 LS polls, BJP failed to win any of the two parliamentary seats in the valley. The party had leads in three of the 15 assembly seats. Congress won the Silchar LS seat and Ajmal's AIUDF won Karimganj. Later, BJP wrested the Silchar assembly seat from Congress in a bypoll.
