Gujarat: Political history (1945- ) - Revision history

Jyoti: /* KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) */

2024-05-07T10:16:33Z

‎KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)

Jyoti: /* Parties’ performance */

2024-01-15T17:30:46Z

‎Parties’ performance

Jyoti: /* Caste combinations */

2023-12-07T21:06:41Z

‎Caste combinations

Jyoti: /* 2018 */

2022-12-23T17:44:09Z

‎2018

Jyoti: /* Voter turnout */

2022-12-10T19:06:36Z

‎Voter turnout

Jyoti: /* Voting patterns */

2022-12-10T19:06:07Z

‎Voting patterns

Jyoti: /* YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS */

2022-12-06T20:53:51Z

‎YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS

Jyoti: /* 1962-2017: BJP vis-à-vis Congress */

2022-11-23T20:13:05Z

‎1962-2017: BJP vis-à-vis Congress

Jyoti: /* Parties’ performance */

2022-11-23T20:10:44Z

‎Parties’ performance

Pdewan: /* Assembly Elections, in brief */

2022-11-21T20:38:45Z

‎Assembly Elections, in brief

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 The brainchild of the then CM Madhavsinh Solanki, KHAM -a combination of Kshatriyas (OBCs included), Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims -proved a successful experiment to forge an unbeatable alliance that enveloped nearly 70% of Gujarat's population. It excluded Patels and other upper castes who deserted Congress en masse. That didn't matter though, as Solanki went on to set an electoral record that stands to date.
 The  BJP has long banked upon support from the upper castes.
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 BJP's ascent and ability to stay at the top was rooted in the deep inroads it made by doggedly working among the Ksha triyas, OBCs, Dalits and Adivasis under the `Hindutva' umbrella to break up `KHAM'.All this, while keeping its Patel and upper caste vote bank intact. Modi himself made conscious efforts to prop up a fresh leadership from among KHAM constituents.
 =Emblems of the state=

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 With Modi presiding over two events of the Patidar community on March 4 and 5, where more than 5 lakh Patidars were in attendance, and the central legislation granding 10% quota to upper castes, BJP hopes the disgruntlement of the 2015 Patidar agitation too has been diluted.
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 [[File: Socio-regional profile of Chief Minister in Gujarat, 2014 and 2016.jpg|Socio-regional profile of Chief Minister in Gujarat, 2014 and 2016; Graphic courtesy: [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Amit-Shahs-imprint-on-new-Gujarat-cabinet/articleshow/53593006.cms ''The Times of India''], August 8, 2016|frame|500px]]
-== KHAM  (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)==
+==KHAM  (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)==
 [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=BJP-warns-Patels-says-Cong-trying-to-short-25102017013020   BJP warns Patels, says Cong trying to short change them | Oct 25 2017 |The Times of India (Delhi)]
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 BJP's ascent and ability to stay at the top was rooted in the deep inroads it made by doggedly working among the Ksha triyas, OBCs, Dalits and Adivasis under the `Hindutva' umbrella to break up `KHAM'.All this, while keeping its Patel and upper caste vote bank intact. Modi himself made conscious efforts to prop up a fresh leadership from among KHAM constituents.
-[[Category:India|G GUJARAT: POLITICAL HISTORY (1945- )GUJARAT: POLITICAL HISTORY (1945- )
+The Gujarat government chose the ghol because of its economic value and its uniqueness. The fish is usually found in the Indo-Pacific region that stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean. The declaration will enable Gujarat to be a part of its conservation efforts, said officials.
-GUJARAT: POLITICAL HISTORY (1945- )]]
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+“Every state can declare a state fish. While deciding one for Gujarat, the first thing that came to our mind was the uniqueness of the fish species. This fish is not easily available. Catches that are reported are far and few between. The second factor was the economic value of the fish, and third, we needed to conserve it and prevent it from over-exploitation,” Nitin Sangwan, Commissioner of Fisheries, Gujarat government, told The Indian Express.
-GUJARAT: POLITICAL HISTORY (1945- )]]
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+''' Which other species were in the fray? '''
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 Chudasama was also present at the ABVP convention, when Joshi shared this. When asked if the Rajasthan Model is being followed in Gujarat, he said, “There is no harm in adopting best practices in education that are implemented in other parts of the country".
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 =Voter turnout=
-==Impact on the BJP, Congress: 1980-2017
+==Impact on the BJP, Congress: 1980-2017==
 [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-voter-turnout-is-linked-with-bjps-seats-in-gujarat-assembly-elections-since-1980/articleshow/96027538.cms  Kumar Shakti Shekhar, Dec 8, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
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 The Congress improved its tally to 77, the highest it won since losing power in 1990.
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← Older revision		Revision as of 19:06, 10 December 2022
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	Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said, “We are raising urban issues but we need to focus more on booth management in cities in Gujarat. Even Rahul Gandhi has had a number of interactions with doctors, lawyers and businessmen.”		Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said, “We are raising urban issues but we need to focus more on booth management in cities in Gujarat. Even Rahul Gandhi has had a number of interactions with doctors, lawyers and businessmen.”
		+
		+	=Voter turnout=
		+	==Impact on the BJP, Congress: 1980-2017
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-voter-turnout-is-linked-with-bjps-seats-in-gujarat-assembly-elections-since-1980/articleshow/96027538.cms Kumar Shakti Shekhar, Dec 8, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	NEW DELHI: Gujarat, which faced assembly election in two phases, registered a voter turnout of about 63 per cent. Since the BJP’s inception in 1980, a direct correlation is observed between the polling percentage and the number of seats the party wins in every assembly election in the state.
		+	Gujarat saw a voter turnout of 63.3 per cent in the first phase of polling held in 89 seats on December 1. The state registered a voter turnout of about 64 per cent in the second phase of election held in 93 seats.
		+
		+	The state has witnessed a polling percentage of about 63.7 per cent in both the phases. This is about 5.4 per cent less voter turnout than the state had witnessed in the 2017 assembly election.
		+
		+	The BJP’s seats have increased whenever the polling percentage has increased in any assembly election. Conversely, the party has shed seats whenever the polling percentage has fallen.
		+
		+	However, the only exception to this was seen in 2012 when the polling percentage jumped to its highest ever but the BJP’s seat was reduced. The loss was of just 2 seats though.
		+
		+	Going by the aggregate of the exit polls for the Gujarat assembly election, 2022 may turn out to be another year of exception. The aggregate gives 132 out of 182 seats to the BJP, 38 to the Congress and 8 to the debutant AAP.
		+
		+	The BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, emphasise on higher turnout in every election because it suits the party.
		+
		+	The BJP’s refrain for the election has been “Pehle matdaan, phir jal-paan (First voting, then breakfast)”.
		+
		+	As the voting percentage increased from 1980 onwards, the BJP has benefitted from every election, barring in 2012.
		+
		+	''' 1980 '''
		+
		+	The voter turnout in the 1980 Gujarat assembly election was 48.37 per cent.
		+
		+	The Congress won 141 of the 182 seats in the assembly. Madhavsinh Solanki took over as the chief minister of the state.
		+	The Janata Party (JP) [JNP (JP)] was in power in the state from 1977 till election was held after a spell of President’s Rule when the Janata Party government lost in the 1980 Lok Sabha election. The Janata Party won just 21 seats.
		+
		+	It was in 1980 that the BJP was founded. In its first assembly election in Gujarat, the BJP won just 9 seats, its lowest tally so far in the nine assembly elections it has contested in the state so far till 2017.
		+
		+	''' 1985 '''
		+
		+	The polling percentage increased very marginally from 48.37 in 1980 to 48.82 in 1985.
		+
		+	The Congress won by registering victory on 149 seats.
		+
		+	Madhavsinh Solanki retained the CM’s post. However, he could remain in the chair for just about four months. He was replaced with Amarsinh Chaudhary in July 1985.
		+
		+	However, in a turn of fate, Solanki was brought back as CM in December 1989 for about three months till election was held early next year.
		+
		+	The Janta Party (JNP) came a distant second by winning just 14 seats.
		+
		+	The Janta Party was followed closely by the BJP whose seats increased from 9 in 1980 to 11 in 1985.
		+
		+	''' 1990 '''
		+
		+	The polling percentage improved slightly to 52.20 from 48.82 in 1985.
		+
		+	The 1990 election threw up a hung assembly with Janata Dal (JD) winning 70 seats.
		+
		+	Chimanbhai Patel took over as CM. However, he was replaced with Chhabildas Mehta of the Congress in February 1994. Mehta was the CM for about a year.
		+
		+	The BJP emerged as the second largest party by winning 67 seats.
		+	The Congress, at 33 seats, came on the third spot in a state which it had ruled for the most part. It has failed to come back to power in 32 years.
		+
		+	''' 1995 '''
		+
		+	The voter turnout in 1995 improved substantially to 64.39 per cent from 52.20 per cent in 1990.
		+
		+	The BJP won 121 seats. It got a majority on its own for the first time. Keshubhai Patel took over as the CM in March 1995.
		+
		+	However, he was succeeded by Suresh Mehta in October 1995. The state witnessed another spell of instability after Shankersinh Vaghela rebelled against the BJP. President’s Rule was imposed in the state in September 1996 for about a month. That was the last time when the state came under President’s Rule.
		+
		+	Vaghela formed his own Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) and took over as CM in October 1996 for a year. He was succeeded by Dilip Parikh of RJP itself in October 1997. Parekh remained in chair for six months before the government fell.
		+	The Congress won 45 seats in 1995.
		+
		+	''' 1998 '''
		+
		+	The polling percentage reduced to 59.30 from 64.39 in the 1995 assembly election. And so did the BJP’s seats.
		+	The BJP won 117 seats as against 121 in 1995. Keshubhai Patel took over as CM in March 1998.
		+
		+	However, Patel was replaced with Narendra Modi in October 2001 following allegations of irregularities and poor governance.
		+	The Congress was victorious on 53 seats.
		+
		+	''' 2002 '''
		+
		+	The polling percentage in 2002 improved by 2 per cent to 61.54 from 59.30 in 1998.
		+
		+	The BJP’s seats also improved by 10 seats to 127 and Modi retained the CM’s chair.
		+
		+	The Congress won 51 seats.
		+
		+	''' 2007 '''
		+
		+	The voting percentage in 2007 fell to 59.77 from 61.54 in 2002.
		+	The BJP’s seats were down by 10 to 117 under Modi who took oath as CM for the third time.
		+
		+	Congress, on the other hand, won 59 seats.
		+
		+	''' 2012 '''
		+
		+	At 71.30 per cent, Gujarat registered the highest voter turnout since 1980.
		+
		+	However, as the only exception since 1985, the BJP’s seats reduced even though the polling percentage witnessed a jump.
		+	The BJP won 115 seats, down 2 seats from the 117 seats it had won in 2007.
		+
		+	Modi continued as the CM. However, the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha election and Modi became the prime minister.
		+	Anandiben Patel succeeded Modi in May 2014.
		+
		+	However, in the midst of the Patidar agitation, she Anandiben Patel was replaced with Vijay Rupani in August 2016.
		+
		+	The Congress won 61 seats in 2012.
		+
		+	''' 2017 '''
		+
		+	The voter turnout fell by 2.29 per cent to 69.01 in 2017 from 71.30 per cent in 2012.
		+
		+	It was the first election with Modi as the PM. The BJP set a target of winning 150 seats.
		+
		+	However, the ruling party witnessed the largest loss of seats between two elections. It won 99 seats, down by 16 seats from 115 it had won in 2012.
		+
		+	Though Rupani was retained as CM, he was replaced with Bhupendra Patel in September 2021 after the state witnessed alleged mismanagement during Covid-19.
		+
		+	The Congress improved its tally to 77, the highest it won since losing power in 1990.
		+
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	=YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS=		=YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS=

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:53, 6 December 2022
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	=YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS=		=YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS=
		+	=1995: The stars of the year and their later rise=
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=27_11_2022_019_003_cap_TOI Nov 27, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: The swearing-in ceremony of Keshubhai Patel, 1995.jpg\|The swearing-in ceremony of Keshubhai Patel, 1995 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/article-share?article=27_11_2022_019_003_cap_TOI Nov 27, 2022: ''The Times of India'']\|frame\|500px]]
		+
		+	VIPUL CHAUDHARY: Chaudhary, a first-time MLA in 1995, sided with Shankersinh Vaghela, who staged a revolt against Keshubhai Patel that year. When Vaghela was sworn in as CM in 1996, he was made MoS home. He later parted ways with Vaghela and became chairman of Dudhsagar dairy between 2006 and 2016. He joined the BJP before the 2007 assembly poll and was given a ticket from the Bhiloda seat. He recently formed the Arbuda Sena as a political front against the BJP. He was arrested in September for allegedly siphoning off Rs 750 crore during his tenure as dairy chairman
		+
		+	ANANDI PATEL: In 1995, Patel was a Rajya Sabha MP. She contested her first assembly election in 1998 and won three more assembly polls. She held important portfolios in consecutive state governments. After Narendra Modi became the PM in 2014, she was made CM but was replaced in 2016. She has since been governor in MP and UP
		+	CHHABILDAS MEHTA: Having preceded Keshubhai Patel as CM, Mehta continued with the Congress until 2001, when he quit and joined the NCP. He contested the election and lost. He died of an illness in November 2008
		+	PRAMOD MAHAJAN: A prominent organizational man in the BJP, Mahajan was named defence minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s first 13-day government in 1996. When the BJP rode back to power in 1998, he became the advisor to the PM and later handled portfolios like I&B, parliamentary affairs and water resources in the Union government. He was appointed communications minister in 2001 and was entrusted with implementing the new telecom policy. In April 2006, he was shot dead by his estranged brother
		+
		+	SOMA KOLI PATEL: Was the BJP Surendranagar MP when Keshubhai Patel was sworn in as CM in 1995. He quit the BJP and won the seat on a Congress ticket in 2009. He won on a Congress ticket from the Limbdi seat in the 2012 and 2017 Gujarat assembly elections but quit the Congress in 2020 to join the BJP
		+
		+	SHANKERSINH VAGHELA: Within a year of Keshubhai Patel’s swearing-in, Vaghela orchestrated a revolt within the BJP. He subsequently became the CM in 1996 and merged his political outfit with the Congress. He was a Union minister in Manmohan Singh’s first stint as PM. He quit the Congress in 2017 and formed his own political outfit
		+
		+	LAL KRISHNA ADVANI: Advani was elected as MP from the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat in the 1998 Lok Sabha election and remained an MP for five consecutive terms (up to 2019). He became the Union home minister in 1998. Later, in 2002, he was chosen as the deputy prime minister. Following the BJP’s defeat in the 2004 general election, he became the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha. The BJP patriarch faded out from the political limelight after 2019
		+
		+	NARENDRA MODI: In 1995, when the BJP first rode to power in Gujarat with a majority of 121 seats, Narendra Modi was an office-bearer of the state BJP outfit. The success boosted his visibility and he was appointed as the BJP national secretary soon. He became the national general secretary in 1998, a position he held until 2001 when he was sworn in as the Gujarat chief minister for the first time. The BJP won 2002, 2007, and 2012 assembly elections under his leadership as CM. He took oath as the prime minister after the 2014 general election and is now in his second term as the PM
		+
		+	BHAIRON SINGH SHEKHAWAT: In 1995, BJP leader Bhairon Singh Shekhawat was the Rajasthan chief minister. He was elected the vice president of India in 2002 when he defeated the opposition candidate, Sushil Kumar Shinde. In 2007, he contested the Presidential election but lost to Pratibha Patil. He succumbed to health-related problems in May 2010
		+
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	=2021=		=2021=

@@ Line 435: / Line 435: @@
 [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/where-the-gujarati-voter-rejects-bjp/articleshow/95527968.cms  Prabhash K Dutta, Nov 22, 2022: ''The Times of India'']
 [[File: Seat BJP has never won; Seats it has won only in bypolls. 1990-2018.jpg|Seat BJP has never won; Seats it has won only in bypolls. 1990-2018 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/where-the-gujarati-voter-rejects-bjp/articleshow/95527968.cms  Prabhash K Dutta, Nov 22, 2022: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
@@ Line 480: / Line 477: @@
 A flurry of visits by President Murmu to states with a tribal identity — the northeastern states of Assam and Tripura in October; Nagaland, Mizoram and Sikkim in early November; Odisha last week; and iconic tribal leader Birsa Munda’s village in Jharkhand this week — may silently work in the BJP’s favour when the tribal voters go to the polling booths on December 1 and 5 in Gujarat.
 ==2012-17==

@@ Line 432: / Line 432: @@
 =Parties’ performance=
 ==2012-17==
 [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F03%2F27&entity=Ar01800&sk=633F4C4F&mode=text  Kapil Dave & Himanshu Kaushik, Why BJP has extra homework in Guj, March 27, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
@@ Line 467: / Line 516: @@
 With Modi presiding over two events of the Patidar community on March 4 and 5, where more than 5 lakh Patidars were in attendance, and the central legislation granding 10% quota to upper castes, BJP hopes the disgruntlement of the 2015 Patidar agitation too has been diluted.
 =University polls=

@@ Line 35: / Line 35: @@
 In many ways then, the current agitation by the influential Patel community is in keeping with the state's past experience of violent protest by the privileged. But while the agitation may have its origins in the local, and Gujarat-based observers have provided various cogent explanations for the sudden discontent, there is something about the scale and deliberate theatricality of the event that points to a less definable intent. A charismatic leader, surging crowds, speeches in Hindu rather than Gujarati, the dramatic destruction of public property , seem to be elements of a spectacle aimed at creating a mood as much as or rather than stating a demand. The atmospherics need to be watched.
-=Assembly Elections, in brief=
+=Assembly Elections, over the years=
 [[File: Gujarat political history .jpg| Gujarat political history [https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20171120-congress-gujarat-rahul-gandhi-hardik-patel-alpesh-thakore-jignesh-mevani-bjp-1082501-2017-11-12 India Today]|frame|500px]]
 ==2017==
@@ Line 222: / Line 222: @@
 Chudasama was also present at the ABVP convention, when Joshi shared this. When asked if the Rajasthan Model is being followed in Gujarat, he said, “There is no harm in adopting best practices in education that are implemented in other parts of the country".
 =Caste combinations=